Javan Shouey
Saturday’s MLB slate of action has brought 3 walk props to my attention, and now I am bringing them to your attention below. Let’s dive in on the analysis behind our prop bets for Zac Gallen, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Drew Rasmussen.
Zac Gallen (ARI) over 1.5 walks allowed (-145)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160 odds. Risking 1u.
Zac Gallen struggled with commanding the strike zone in his first 3 MLB seasons, posting walk rates of 10.8%, 8.6%, and 9.4% in those respective seasons. In 2022 and 2023 he showed improved command, but he then took a step back in 2024 with an 8.7% walk rate and 2 or more free passes issued in 17 of 28 starts. So far in 2025 Gallen has allowed 2 or more walks in 12 of 14 starts while allowing 3 or more in 8 of those outings. His overall walk rate this season sits at 10.4%, a mark ranking 23rd percentile. Gallen is landing pitches for strikes just 61.7% of the time, ranking him 16th lowest among 127 qualified starting pitchers this season.
Gallen is walking 11.6% of the left-handed batters he faces, and San Diego is projected to have 5 lefties in their lineup today. The Padres are not the league’s best lineup when it comes to drawing walks, but their plate discipline and patience have improved in the last month. Over the last 30 days San Diego ranks just 24th in swing rate and 8 of the last 9 non-opener right-handed starting pitchers to face the Padres have allowed multiple walks. At a playable 1.5 line I find serious value in this angle, and I would even consider a sprinkle on 3+ walks at plus money.
Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) under 1.5 walks allowed (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160 odds. Risking 1u.
Tomoyuki Sugano was heralded for his control of the zone before joining MLB, as the veteran right-hander has had a long and successful career in his home country before becoming an Oriole. Sugano is known for attacking the zone with strikes and pitching to contact, and that strategy has carried over into his MLB career so far. Through his first 75.1 innings of work at the major league level the Orioles starter has issued just 12 free passes while recording a walk rate of just 4.0%. That mark ranks 96th percentile and has resulted in 1 or 0 walks allowed in 10 of his 13 starts made. Sugano has not allowed multiple walks in any of his last 6 starts, a streak that began in his first matchup with the Los Angeles Angels.
Sugano faces the Angels again today and will look to build upon his strong outing the first time around. He tossed 7.1 innings of 1-run ball with zero walks allowed in that first matchup, and despite the return of both Soler and Trout to the Angels lineup I expect strong command once again today from Sugano. Los Angeles ranks just 28th in walk rate against right-handed pitching this season at 7.5%, and their mark in the last 30 days is just 7.9%.
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) under 1.5 walks allowed (-125)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds. Risking 1u.
Our third walk prop of this article involved Drew Rasmussen and his elite command of the zone. Among 127 qualified starting pitchers this season the Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher ranks 24th best in strike percentage, landing strikes 66.1% of the time. He jumps ahead in counts often with a 68.1% first-pitch strike rate, a mark that ranks 12th best among that same list of pitchers. Rasmussen has always had strong command of the zone with his career-long walk rate sitting at just 6.3% across his 379.2 innings of work. In 13 starts spanning 69 innings this season Rasmussen has allowed just 14 walks while his 5.3% walk rate ranks 87th percentile. The righty has allowed 2 or more walks in just 3 of those 13 starts and that includes each of his last 3 outings.
Matching up with the Mets is not ideal as New York is a lineup capable of drawing free passes, but there are 2 factors I love about this prop today. The first is that Rasmussen does not often get overextended by his manager, and his leash is kept pretty short with just 77.6 pitches per start on average. He can work deeper into games based off efficiency, but he has topped out at 86 pitches this season and hasn’t surpassed 79 in any of his last 4 starts despite strong outings. The second factor I like about this prop today is the potential for rain causing an in-game delay that could further shorten his outing. Forecasts are calling for on and off rain all day long in New York and a patch of rain at the right time could help us out with an under.
