Javan Shouey
Kris Bubic has had an outstanding season as a member of the starting rotation for the Kansas City Royals, and I expect the talented left-hander to pitch again once more in his matchup with the Texas Rangers on Wednesday. Let’s dive in!
Be sure to also check out our expert’s YRFI/NRFI best bets for today
Kris Bubic (KCR) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds. Risking 0.5u.
Kris Bubic (KCR) over 17.5 outs recorded (-140)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds. Risking 0.5u.
As you can see above, I am splitting my unit on Bubic across 2 angles. I expect the southpaw hurler to work deep into this game with 6 or more innings for his club, and with that length provided he should find no issue earning 6 or more punch outs. On the season Bubic has posted a 1.92 ERA in his first 79.2 innings of work while his 2.55 FIP is also very strong. Bubic does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding hard contact allowed, and his ability to generate the 3rd strike makes him very difficult to deal with.
I love that Bubic offers a 5-pitch mix to opponents with 4 of those pitches earning at least 15.8% usage. This helps to keep the opposition off balance, and he has found success against either handedness of batter as a result. Bubic is especially effective against right-handed batters which is big as opponents typically stack righties against him. His changeup is lethal with a 38.5% whiff rate and a .173 xBA against it and I expect that pitch to be a big part of his success today. Bubic faces a Rangers lineup that has been iffy offensively all season long. Against left-handed pitching within the last 30 days the team ranks dead last in wOBA and has the 3rd highest strikeout rate, and this team deserves to be targeted against talented lefties until further notice. Kris has cleared this 5.5 strikeout prop in 8 of 13 starts with 5 outings of 8 or more Ks. He has also cleared 6 full innings in 9 of his 13 starts made.
