Javan Shouey
Wednesday’s slate of MLB action is jam-packed with potential betting angles and intriguing games worth tuning into across the 15 games. From a betting perspective, there are 3 MLB player prop bets standing out to me and this article covers the reasoning for those plays below. Let’s dive in, while you can also check out our expert MLB picks for EVERY GAME today, with our handicappers boasting a 19-5 record across the last 2 days!
MLB player prop bet: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts (-122)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds. Risking 1u.
Few things are more fun to watch than a rookie pitcher who takes the league by storm, and Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers is one of the latest starters to wow the sport. The lanky right-hander has been a highly touted prospect for quite some time after he was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft. Misiorowski worked his way through the minor leagues while flashing extraordinary strikeout numbers and preventing runs at a plus rate in most of his stops. In 63.1 innings at AAA this season, the righty has posted a 31.6% strikeout rate while allowing an ERA of just 2.13.
His first 2 MLB starts have resulted in 11 innings of 1-hit baseball with 11 strikeouts against the Cardinals and Twins. Both of those lineups are generally low-strikeout rate lineups against right-handed pitching, and now Misiorowski will benefit from his most advantageous matchup on paper. The Pittsburgh Pirates have the 7th-highest strikeout rate against right-handers in the last 30 days at 23.6%. Their lack of familiarity with his stuff and his elite swing-and-miss capabilities should allow him to record 6 or more K’s in this matchup.
Read our full Pirates vs Brewers prediction
MLB player prop bet: MacKenzie Gore (WSH) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-140)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155 odds. Risking 1u.
MacKenzie Gore is having a very strong season for the Washington Nationals and he now faces his former team. Gore was traded by the San Diego Padres along with several other prospects in the Juan Soto deal years ago, and the Nationals are benefiting from that trade with their young players blossoming into stars. Gore is an example of that, as the left-handed starter has the league’s 3rd-most strikeouts entering this start, with 123 in his 93 innings of work so far. He is generating a 91st-percentile whiff rate, which helps him eliminate runners on base, and his run-prevention metrics are strong with a 2.94 FIP and 2.86 SIERA.
Gore has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 16 starts so far this season, including 6 straight before his last outing against the Dodgers. He allowed a season-worst 5 earned runs in that game but I am expecting a strong bounce-back start today as he draws a more favorable matchup. San Diego is an above-average lineup, but they fare better when facing right-handed pitching. Against lefties this season, the team sits 22nd in wOBA with an 84 wRC+. Gore should also benefit from making this start in a pitcher-friendly environment as opposed to his hitter-friendly home park.
Read our full Nationals vs Padres prediction
MLB player prop bet: Erick Fedde (STL) over 1.5 walks allowed (-120)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds. Risking 1u.
Finally, we are looking to fade the command of Erick Fedde in his matchup with the Chicago Cubs. Fedde was a disappointment for the Washington Nationals in his formative MLB seasons, and the right-hander signed in the KBO to work on his game and regain confidence. Fedde returned to the majors last season after signing with the White Sox and he pitched well enough to generate interest at the trade deadline. The Cardinals acquired him at that deadline last season, and since then, the right-hander has been a decent part of this starting rotation. This season, Fedde has posted a 3.54 ERA in his first 84 innings of work, but his walk rate has regressed this season.
Last season was the best walk rate of Fedde’s career at 7.2%, but this season that rate is back to 10.2%. His final season in MLB before heading overseas resulted in a 10.1% walk rate, and projection sources have him around 8-9% for the rest of the season. Through his first 15 starts this season, he has walked 2 or more batters 10 times. This includes 8 starts in which he issued 3 or more free passes. He now faces a Cubs lineup that sports the 11th-highest walk rate against right-handed pitching this season at 9.1%. There are several batters in the Cubs’ lineup willing to draw ball 4, and at current pricing, this is worth a play to me.
Lock in today’s MLB best bets from our experts with a 75-53 record this season!
