Javan Shouey
The final weekend of June is here, and we have a wonderful looking slate of MLB action for the purpose of our entertainment. From a betting perspective there are 2 undervalued starting pitchers who I am looking to back in advantageous matchups today.
This article covers the reasoning behind these prop bet suggestions, so let’s dive in!
Andrew Abbott (CIN) Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130. 1u.
Andrew Abbott is someone I have been a fan of since he first took an MLB mound, as I bet on him to record 5 or more strikeouts in his MLB debut. Abbott recorded 6 Ks in that outing and has been a profitable pitcher for me ever since. Today I am looking to bet on Abbott in the earned runs allowed market, believing he will allow 2 or fewer earned runs in today’s matchup with the San Diego Padres. The Padres have scored exactly 1 run in each of their last 2 games, including nearly being no-hit by Nick Martinez yesterday. San Diego has struggled against southpaw pitching this season ranking 22nd with a .285 wOBA and a wRC+ of 83. Within the last 30 days against that handedness of pitcher they sit 28th in wOBA at .266 while posting a wRC+ of 70.
Abbott has had a strong season for the Reds so far through his first 75.1 innings. His 1.79 ERA is unsustainable, and will likely approach 3 eventually, but he is clearly a talented top-end starter for the Reds. Abbott’s 2.95 xERA still ranks 85th percentile and his 91st percentile hard-hit rate is a large reason for his success this season. He is a solid strikeout arm capable of recording the 3rd strike even in this tough matchup, and his willingness to attack the zone limits free passes. The Reds bullpen is very well rested and there is no need to extend his leash further than normal in this outing. There is also a slight chance of an in-game delay due to rain which would only help our cause.
Michael Soroka (WAS) Over 5.5 strikeouts (-129)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145. 1u.
Michael Soroka was a massive prospect and terrific early contributor for the Atlanta Braves before injuries derailed his progression at the MLB level. The right-hander split time between the bullpen and starting rotation last season for the lowly White Sox, posting some improved strikeout numbers but allowing a 4.74 ERA overall. Through 53.1 innings this season his ERA sits above 5, but 3.20 xERA suggests there is potential regression in his favor. From a strikeout perspective, Soroka has punched out 59 batters in his small sample size this season, and his recent outings have produced some eye-popping results. He has posted 31 Ks in 22.1 innings this month with 7 or more Ks in 3 of those 4 starts. This includes 9 Ks against the Rockies and then 10 Ks against the Dodgers in his last start. The only start within that span in which he remained under 5.5 Ks was a 5-strikeout performance against the Mets.
The Los Angeles Angels have the sport’s 2nd highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season at 26.1%. Within the last 30 days against righties that number sits at 24.5% which is still within the bottom 4 in that span. Their 28.3% called strike plus whiff rate in that timeframe is also the 4th highest mark. I acknowledge that Soroka’s underlying strikeout numbers will not allow for continual 9+strikeout outings, but asking for 6 Ks against the Angels is not a lot. We have seen as many as 102 pitches and 27 batters faced for him, so his leash is of no concern, and there is no rain on the forecast in Los Angeles.
