Javan Shouey
Today’s MLB action includes all 30 teams with several interesting matchups as a result. From a betting perspective there are two spots that stand out to me among the rest on Saturday, and this article highlights the reasoning behind those betting angles. Let’s dive in!
Logan Webb (SFG) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-134)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds. Risking 1u,
I have bet on Logan Webb several times this season, and countless times during his career. The majority of my times betting on him have been when he pitches in his home park, and the same is true today in his matchup with the Atlanta Braves. Webb is an essential piece of this Giants’ clubhouse, providing the team with a bonafide ace every 5 or 6 days and a pitcher that will compete with the best of them. The right-hander is a ground ball merchant that thrives on double plays and long outings, but his strikeout prowess has taken a step forward this season as well. Webb is earning a career-best 27.5% strikeout rate so far through his first 81.1 innings worked, and his underlying metrics suggest that uptick may be sustainable. His 31.7% CSW% is a career-best mark while his elite combination of first-pitch strike rate and chase rate makes him a bully for opposing batters at times. Increased sweeper usage and a shift in how he throws his changeup, paired with increased whiff rates on both pitches, has helped Webb become a more potent strikeout arm and I like his matchup for Ks in his start today.
Atlanta is a good offense, but they are not immune to striking out. This season against right-handed pitching the Braves rank 15th with a 21.6% strikeout rate but that mark spikes to 22.7% in their last 300 plate appearances. San Francisco has some available relievers, but their bullpen is taxed overall as a unit and the Giants would love another lengthy outing from Webb at home. Given his increased whiff rate and having one of the longer leashes among MLB starters, Webb should clear this 5.5 line more often than the odds suggest.
Michael Wacha (KCR) over 17.5 outs recorded (-125)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
The Kansas City Royals have a depleted bullpen as a result of their recent schedule. On Tuesday, June 3 they got just 2.2 innings from starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen, and they ended up using 6 relievers for at least 15 pitches each in that game. Their game on Wednesday was rained out resulting in a doubleheader on Thursday. Game 1 of that doubleheader saw the Royals use 5 relievers due to the game entering extra-innings. The 2nd game of the doubleheader saw just 3 innings from starter Cole Ragans and another 3 relievers were used. Seth Lugo did at least work 5 frames yesterday, but it still wasn’t an overly extensive outing. The Royals would love to see some length from Michael Wacha today and he is more than capable of doing so in this matchup, in my opinion.
Wacha has made 12 starts this season, clearing this 17.5 mark in just 5 of those outings, but that does include 5 of his last 7. Kansas City allowed the veteran right-hander to toss a season-high 99 pitches in his last start which is encouraging for his leash moving forward. He completed 7 full innings in that start against Detroit and was highly efficient with only 2 base runners allowed. On the season Wacha averages just 1.65 pitches per plate appearance, a mark that is tied for 12th lowest among 130 qualified pitchers. His pitch-to-contact nature and willingness to throw strikes allows for quick at-bats and the ability to find a groove. Wacha has solid batted ball metrics, ranking 87th percentile in hard-hit rate while 73rd percentile in barrel rate. His 6-pitch mix allows him to approach batters a different way the 2nd and 3rd time through the batting order.
The White Sox are not a lineup I fear, as they rank just 29th in wOBA with a 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Since May 1 they sit 27th in wOBA with a 87 wRC+. They are a lineup that will draw some walks on occasion, but they lack the ability to generate hard contact with any consistency. Even the Baltimore Orioles starting rotation that has been one of the worst in MLB this season saw 6 or more innings from Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, and Zach Eflin against Chicago last week.
