Javan Shouey
Saturday’s MLB slate has several intriguing matchups from an entertainment perspective with numerous high-profile starting pitchers taking the mound. From a betting perspective I have found 2 player props that are showing solid value. Today’s article covers Erick Fedde of the Cardinals as he takes on the Braves, and Houston’s Framber Valdez in his matchup with the Rangers. Let’s dive in!
Erick Fedde (STL) over 1.5 walks allowed (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds. Risking 1u.
Erick Fedde has a rough start to his MLB career before joining the KBO and retooling his pitch arsenal. The right-hander returned to the majors in 2024 with time split between the White Sox and Cardinals. In 177.1 total innings last year Fedde produced a 3.30 ERA while regaining traction in his MLB career. This season has not been as strong, however, as command of the strike zone has slipped and the rest of his performance has taken a hit as a result. Fedde is allowing an 11.0% walk rate this season, a mark that ranks just 15th percentile. His 23.8% chase rate sits just 8th percentile and his inability to generate swings outside the zone forces him to execute in the zone.
Fedde has made 18 starts so far this season while issuing 2 or more free passes in 13 of those starts. This includes 3 or more walks issued in 10 of those starts and 4 or more in 6 outings. Among those 6 starts with 4 or more walks allowed, Fedde allowed 4 walks in just 1.1 innings of work against the Chicago Cubs in his last start. His 53 pitches across 10 batters faced was enough to head to the bullpen early. Today Fedde faces an Atlanta Braves lineup he already matched up against this season. In that first outing Fedde walked 3 Brave hitters in his 6 innings of work. Over the last 30 days of play against right-handed pitching the Braves have the 11th highest walk rate. Getting plus money for this prop is too nice to pass up in my opinion.
Framber Valdez (HOU) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-155)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170 odds. Risking 1u.
While a more expensive price than my last bet, I am still seeing value on this Framber Valdez player prop today. The Houston Astros have relied on Framber to be his dominant self for the past several seasons and so has my betting portfolio with very few starting pitchers receiving my money more often. Valdez has been a consistent source of innings and run prevention in Houston for quite some time now, including a 2.90 ERA through his first 115 innings this season. The southpaw hurler has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 18 trips to the mound this season. One of those times allowing 3 or more runs did come against this Texas Rangers lineup, but I expect him to rebound nicely at home this evening.
Framber has pitched well regardless of venue this season, but his performance at home has been elevated with a 1.83 ERA in 59 innings. His last start resulted in 4 earned runs allowed, but that start was in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. Now he draws a Rangers lineup that ranks just 19th in wOBA against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Framber has been walking more batters than I would like of late, but his 98th percentile ground ball rate helps him avoid damage more often than not. I am a fan of Valdez in this spot.
