Javan Shouey
I will be in attendance for this evening’s matchup between the Chicago White Sox and my Pittsburgh Pirates, but my focus from a player prop perspective is elsewhere today. Let’s dive into the article below as I break down the Padres offense against Mitchell Parker and Yusei Kikuchi’s matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies.
San Diego Padres F5 TT Over 2.5 (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds. Risking 1u.
Mitchell Parker is really struggling in his current form, allowing 3 or more earned runs in 12 of his last 14 trips to the mound. Among those 12 starts 8 have resulted in 4 or more earned runs with 4 of them resulting in 5 or more allowed. Overall, Parker has a 5.12 ERA on the season and his ERA in those last 14 starts sits at 6.85. In that 69.2 inning sample the southpaw has allowed a .296 opponent batting average while earning just a 5.3% K-BB%. His command was supposed to be an attribute of his game, but it has been shaky all season long and his inability to rack up the strikeouts makes it tough to battle out of tough situations.
Parker just faced this Padres lineup on June 23rd, allowing 3 earned runs in his 6 innings of work. While the Padres didn’t achieve that mark through the first 5 innings the first time around, they now benefit from increased familiarity and an improved ballpark for hitting. San Diego goes from the pitcher friendly Petco to a hitter-friendly Nationals Park, and temperatures in the 80’s with slight wind blowing out should help our cause.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) Over 1.5 walks allowed (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds. Risking 1u.
I bet on and lost on this exact prop at this exact price in Yusei Kikuchi’s last start, but I am willing to go back in for another stab tonight against the Phillies. Kikuchi has struggled with command of the strike zone at various points in his career, and this season his 10.2% BB% ranks 22nd percentile. The southpaw hurler has had a decent season for the Angels overall, but even if he pitches well tonight his volume of batters faced should help our cause. Kikuchi is issuing a free pass every 9.83 batters faced and will now face 2 of the more patient left-handed batters in Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Both imposing figures are capable of nuking a ball out of the stadium and opposing pitchers are cautious of where they locate the ball as a result. We could even benefit from an intentional walk to one of those batters should a free base open up in a key situation.
Kikuchi walks 11.3% of the right-handed batters he faces as well, opening the door for the lower walk rate bats in the Phillies lineup to possibly draw a free pass or 2. Overall, the Phillies rank among the middle of the pack in walk rate against southpaw pitching but they have drawn multiple walks against 12 of the last 17 left-handed starters they have faced. Kikuchi has allowed 2 or more walks in 13 of his 20 starts so far in 2025 including 8 outings where he allowed 3 or more free passes.
