Javan Shouey
We’ve got a mammoth 18-game slate of MLB action today (19 if you include the conclusion of yesterday’s Reds vs Red Sox game), and as such there are a ton of betting opportunities to target. I’m here to give my best MLB player prop bets, targeting Astros vs Rockies and Giants vs Diamondbacks. Let’s dive in, while you can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME There are several interesting MLB matchups worth diving into on Wednesday’s slate of action, including my 2 favorite strikeout props. Those strikeout props are covered below as we delve into the matchups for Hunter Brown and Merrill Kelly.
Hunter Brown (HOU) over 6.5 strikeouts (-125)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
Hunter Brown has had an elite season for the Houston Astros so far through his first 98 innings of work, posting a 1.74 ERA with 118 strikeouts to date. The flame-throwing right-hander has been a model of consistency and reliability for his club and he now draws a favorable matchup against the Colorado Rockies. Colorado has been one of the sport’s weaker lineups this season, regardless of handedness faced. They do benefit from playing this game in their hitter-friendly home environment, but Brown’s talent and recent form should be enough to overcome those circumstances.
Brown has recorded 7 or more punchouts in 11 of his 16 starts so far this season, seeing 8 or more punchouts recorded in 10 of those outings. He has 9 or more recorded in half of his starts, including his last outing where he recorded 9 K’s in 7 scoreless frames against the Phillies. Brown ranks in the 92nd percentile with his 32.1% strikeout rate, and he does so by way of several different pitches. The majority of his strikeouts have come on his 4-seamer that is generating a 32.6% whiff rate, and that offering should hold its shape well in Coors Field, as opposed to some starters who rely more on their breaking balls. Colorado has been strikeout-prone all season long and I look for that to continue in this spot.
Lock in our expert MLB best bets for today, with our team boasting an 82-60 record
Merrill Kelly (ARI) over 5.5 strikeouts (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds. Risking 1u.
Merrill Kelly has been pitching extremely well from a strikeout perspective, yet oddsmakers continue to hang playable 5.5 lines for the veteran right-hander. Eventually, he will remain under this mark, and it will seem as though the 5.5 line was a trap, but at this point, I am willing to pay to see it. Kelly has surpassed this 5.5 mark in each of his last 10 starts, generating a chase on 1/3 of pitches thrown and inducing a 12.8% swinging strike-rate in that span. With 73 strikeouts in those 60.1 innings of work, Kelly is on a roll with the strikeouts, and he now draws a matchup against the San Francisco Giants.
On the season, the Giants have the league’s 11th-lowest K% at 20.1% against right-handed pitching in their home park. When on the road against right-handers, however, San Francisco sees their K% jump to 24.0%, which is the 6th-highest mark. Kelly already took advantage of this matchup in a start at San Francisco, producing 7 innings of 1-run ball with 8 K’s along the way. Merrill has found success against either handedness of batter this season and given his current form, I am happy to bet on this price.
Tail our experts’ 11-6 run with today’s MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets, featuring Orioles vs Rangers and Yankees vs Blue Jays
