Javan Shouey
With numerous interesting matchups and plenty of betting angles to choose from in each game, Wednesday’s slate of MLB action is jam-packed with potential. From a betting perspective, there are a couple of MLB player prop bets that stand out to me for today’s action. Let’s dive in, while you can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today.
After yesterday’s winner, find out ThatGuyBets’ MLB YRFI/NRFI best bet for today, targeting Brewers vs Mariners
Best MLB player prop bet: Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) under 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-112)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.
Brandon Pfaadt has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts while accruing 7 or more punchouts in 3 of those outings. The right-hander is enjoying the best stretch of his season when it comes to strikeout production, but that is opening up an opportunity to fade his K prop today against the Houston Astros. Despite clearing this number in 4 of his last 5 starts, Pfaadt has recorded 6 or more K’s in just 8 of his 20 starts so far this season. Now Pfaadt draws a matchup against an Astros lineup that has been rather K-averse this season offensively.
Against right-handed pitching on the season, the Astros have the 11th-lowest strikeout rate at 21.0%. Their strikeout rate has been elevated in the month of July, and their right-handed heavy lineup does play into Pfaadt’s better split, but I still find this price to be more than reasonable in this spot. Pfaadt’s 4.82 ERA has been the product of several long innings and poor stretches within games, and despite the Astros performing better in their home park this season, I believe they can produce offensively in this matchup.
Read our full Astros vs Diamondbacks prediction
Best MLB player prop bet: Max Fried (NYY) over 17.5 outs recorded (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
Our 2nd MLB player prop bet of the day is Max Fried of the Yankees to record 18 or more outs in his matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto is undeniably a solid offense that has been productive this season against either-handedness of pitching, but I still find this -130 price to be more than playable. Fried has been outstanding this season in his debut year with the Yankees following his massive contract in the offseason that took him away from the Atlanta Braves. In his first 122.0 innings of work, the southpaw hurler has posted a 2.43 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He has the ability to generate ground-ball outs, record the 3rd strike on his own and work deep into games, and today we are betting on his efficiency.
Fried has recorded 18 or more outs in 14 of his 20 starts so far this season, including in 7 of his 11 road outings. He has faced this Toronto lineup twice already this season, recording 6 full innings in both starts while recording a quality start in both outings. The Blue Jays have talent and the ability to produce in most matchups, but their aggressive nature leads to quite a few quick plate appearances. This allows for opposing starters to find a groove if they have their stuff that day, and Fried is already a pitcher who thrives on efficiency. I do expect Toronto to find a couple of runs against Fried, but his workload and this matchup should result in 6 or more innings of work for the southpaw.
Read our full Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction
