The final weekend of July is here, and we have a loaded slate of MLB action to keep us entertained. The July 31 trade deadline is rapidly approaching as we enter the post all-star break portion of the season, and Merrill Kelly is a name with a ton of trade rumors. Our best bet for today’s slate of games involves Kelly, so let’s dive in and analyze his matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates!
Best MLB player prop bet: Merrill Kelly (ARI) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -15o odds.
Merrill Kelly’s name is circulating in trade rumors as the Arizona Diamondbacks appear to be entering a fire sale for the July 31 MLB trade deadline. Arizona has not had the season they were hoping for due to injuries and tough competition within their division and league. The organization realizes their positioning and is already willing to part with some of their assets, trading Josh Naylor to Seattle late Thursday night. With Kelly possibly on the move this could very well be his final outing as a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. If true, it would be a sad moment for many Arizona fans who have seen Kelly be a key member of the rotation and community dating back to their struggling years. With his 3.32 ERA and history of providing quality innings, Kelly would be a welcome addition for any starting rotation in the league.
From a betting perspective I favor the under on his 2.5 earned runs allowed prop in Saturday’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Kelly has made 21 starts so far this season while remaining under that 2.5 mark in 14 of them. This includes each of his last 3 starts in which he has combined for just 4 earned runs allowed across 18 innings of work. The Pirates offense was silent in yesterday’s game, losing 1-0 in 11 innings of play. I expect Kelly to attack the zone with strikes early and often in counts as he delivers a quality outing for his Arizona Diamondbacks.
Best MLB player prop bet: Joe Ryan (MIN) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-149)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160 odds.
Joe Ryan has had an outstanding season for the Minnesota Twins in 2025. The right-hander has posted a 2.63 ERA in his first 20 outings of the year, spanning a combined 116.1 innings of work. That production earned him an all-star nod in the American League, and his momentum has carried into the 2nd half so far. His first start following the all-star break resulted in 11 strikeouts across 7 innings of 1-run ball as he shredded the Colorado Rockies. Now Ryan will look to perform well as he and the Twins take on the Washington Nationals. Friday’s matchup between the teams resulted in a 1-0 Twins victory as Zebby Matthews fired 6 scoreless frames.
The Nationals lineup has performed better when in their home park this season, and when on the road against right-handed pitching they rank just 22nd in wOBA. Ryan has been pitching well regardless of matchup, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 15 of his 20 outings this season. This includes each of his last 3 home starts, a place where he has performed far better this season than in previous years. Ryan has particularly improved his game in the home run department, and if he can keep the ball in the park today, I love his chances of dominating. Look for Ryan to deliver another strong start for the Twins against the Nationals on Saturday.