Javan Shouey
The 4th of July was a ton of fun, but the good times will continue today as we have another loaded MLB slate of games. This MLB prop betting article covers my favorite prop bets for the July 5 slate of action, highlighting the Washington Nationals and Detroit Tigers. Let’s dive in!
Washington Nationals first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings and Caesars sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds. Risking 1u.
The Washington Nationals offense is an inconsistent unit, ad that is to be expected with youthful talent. The organization is behind schedule on their rebuild, but that doesn’t mean the cupboards are bare, as the Juan Soto trade from years ago continues to pay off. Atop the batting order for Washington most days are CJ Abrams and James Wood and that is a quality start to any rebuild. There is some other talent littered through the lineup, but the results haven’t been what National fans would have hoped for to this point. Today they have a quality shot at offensive production, however, as favorable hitting conditions and an advantageous matchup are aligning for the Washington hitters.
Temperatures are expected to be in the high-80’s to low-90’s in this game with winds blowing out to left field at around 6 MPH. Washington has been a bit better offensively this season in their home park, and Walker Buehler has been rather horrid on the road this season. The veteran starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox has posted a 6.45 ERA through his first 67 innings this season, and in his 30.1 innings on the road that ERA spikes even further to 9.49. Buehler has allowed the opposing team to score 3 or more runs within the first 5 innings in each of his last 6 starts, allowing 30 earned runs in that span with 19 walks issued and 9 home runs allowed. He is especially struggling with left-handed batters who have a .329 AVG and .912 OPS against him this season. Washington is likely to stack their lineup with several lefties including their most dangerous hitters. I love this spot for the Nationals to get going offensively.
Detroit Tigers first 5 innings ML (-135)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds. Risking 1u.
I like how the Detroit Tigers match up with the Cleveland Guardians today, especially through the first 5 innings of play. While I expect the Detroit Tigers to win the game outright today, I prefer backing them through the first 5 innings for an additional 5 cents of juice. Isolating Casey Mize vs Logan Allen is my preferred angle in this game, as the Tigers bullpen is somewhat taxed given recent usage. There is a chance some of their higher leverage arms could be rested in this spot and thus I will stick to a 5-inning wager in this game. Mize has been outstanding for the Tigers this season, posting a 2.86 ERA in his first 14 starts spanning 78.2 innings of work. He missed some time in the middle of May, but his June performance was strong with 27.2 innings of a 2.93 ERA. This includes 6.2 innings of 2-run ball in his last outing against the Twins. Mize allowed 1 earned run across 5 innings against Cleveland earlier this season and I expect another strong outing today from the former first overall draft pick.
Allen is a pitcher I have bet against seral times in the past, and I am not a fan of his matchup today. He made a start against the Tigers earlier this season as well, lasting just 3.2 innings despite 97 pitches thanks to 4 free passes allowed. Allen also allowed 6 hits and a home run resulting in 4 earned runs and an additional unearned run surrendered. Detroit has performed well against southpaw pitching all season long, and within the last 30 days they rank 2nd in wOBA with a 136 wRC+. Allen is a low strikeout rate arm that ranks just 8th percentile in whiff rate. His 9.9% walk rate and 9.8%-barrel rate are a worrisome combination as well. Look for Detroit to grab an early lead in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians prediction: Tigers first 5 innings ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds.
