Javan Shouey
With the MLB playoffs rapidly approaching, each game and each series becomes even more crucial. Today’s slate of action includes numerous high-stakes matchups, and that applies to both games we will cover today for my best MLB player prop bets. Let’s dive in, while you can also check out our expert MLB picks for EVERY GAME today.
Nick Pivetta (SD) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-149)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160 odds.
Nick Pivetta is coming off a poor outing against his former Red Sox club, but I expect a strong bounce-back effort from the right-hander in this matchup today. Pivetta has been a solid resource for the Padres this season, providing his team’s starting rotation with 134.2 innings of work so far this year. His production has been terrific as well, with a 2.94 ERA and 139 strikeouts in that span. Pivetta is someone who has traditionally struggled with allowing too many home runs, and his home ballparks in the past have not helped him in that department. This season, he has pitched his home starts in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, and this afternoon he gets to pitch in another pitcher-friendly park in San Francisco.
Pivetta has been able to work deep into ballgames with consistency, and that average depth to his start is likely why we are getting a playable price on this prop. Overall, Pivetta has remained under 2.5 earned runs allowed in 16 of his 23 starts so far this season. This includes 7 straight outings with 2 or fewer earned runs surrendered before his last outing. San Francisco has not been hitting the cover off the ball since acquiring Rafael Devers and this is certainly a matchup Pivetta can take advantage of on paper.
Now read Javan’s MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for today
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-149)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160 odds.
Cristopher Sanchez has been one of the best left-handed starting pitchers in the sport during the 2025 season. In fact, he has been one of the better starters regardless of handedness in 2025. Sanchez has posted 144.2 innings of work so far this season with a 2.36 ERA and 151 strikeouts to show for it. He has been dominant via an increase in strikeout production while remaining extremely efficient given his ground-ball nature. Sanchez is able to work deep into games with consistency and he has been a steady source for this Phillies rotation. This afternoon, I am looking to back Sanchez in the strikeout department as he takes on the Cincinnati Reds.
Sanchez has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in 14 of his 23 starts so far this season, including 5 of his last 6 starts. He has yet to face the Reds this season and no active Red batter has more than 8 plate appearances against him in their careers. That lack of familiarity should help Sanchez out, especially early on in the game and when there are 2 strikes. Sanchez is capable of recording this line in 4 innings of work, but his ability to work deep into games makes me comfortable laying the juice on this price.
Read our full Phillies vs Reds prediction
