Javan Shouey
The first Wednesday of August is here and we have 2 player prop bets for this loaded 15-game MLB slate. The action starts up early, so let’s dive into my best MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, August 6, while you can also grab our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today, with our experts boasting a 27-14-1 record this week!
MLB prop pick: Andrew Abbott (CIN) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-145)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds.
Andrew Abbott is someone I have talked about numerous times on this platform, but his production continues to defeat the betting markets and I am willing to buy in again. Abbott has remained under 2.5 earned runs allowed in 16 of his 19 starts this season. He was under that mark in 16 of his 25 starts in 2024 and 13 of 21 starts as a rookie in 2023. The southpaw uncharacteristically walked 5 batters during his last start against the Braves but still escaped damage with just 2 earned runs surrendered. I expect his command to bounce back to his normal standards in this outing against the Cubs.
Chicago began the season very well against left-handed pitching, and that strong start has carried their season-long numbers in that split. They haven’t been nearly as lethal of late against lefties, however, with opposing southpaw starters remaining under 2.5 earned runs in 15 of the last 18 chances. This sample excludes Tyler Holton, who opened a game for the Tigers, and Nick Lodolo, who recently left his appearance with blisters. Weather always plays a role in how Wrigley Field games are bet on, and today’s weather is calling for winds blowing in up to 10 mph. The total for the game is set at just 7.5 and I expect Abbott to deliver another strong outing for his club.
Read our full Reds vs Cubs prediction, featuring a pick at +120 odds!
MLB player prop bet: Gavin Williams (CLE) over 16.5 outs recorded (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Gavin Williams had a shaky start to his 2025 campaign but has pitched far better of late. The talented right-hander has found a groove with 6 of more complete innings in 3 straight outings, and 4 of his last 5 starts overall. Efficiency isn’t always easy for Williams who has issued 62 walks across 116.1 innings pitched. He has been a bit better in that department of late, issuing 5 walks within his last 3 starts spanning 19 innings pitched. Gavin is often able to erase those mistakes with his 64th percentile ground ball rate and his 61st percentile strikeout rate, and I expect a strong start from him this afternoon.
Williams faces a Mets lineup on Wednesday that has not been playing their best offensive ball of late. New York ranks just 22nd in wOBA against right-handed pitching since July 1. They also may rest a key piece, or two given today is a travel day for the club. They do have Thursday off before facing the Brewers, but extra rest for a veteran could benefit them anyway. Williams has also pitched well during day games this season with a 2.01 ERA in 62.2 innings of work. If he is shutting this Mets lineup down with relative efficiency, I believe he can get us at least 2 outs into the 6th inning.
Lock in our Guardians vs Mets best bet for today
