Javan Shouey
We have a loaded slate of MLB action on Wednesday, September 10, and there are 2 prop bets showing very solid value this morning. Let’s dive in and discuss today’s player prop suggestions!
Best MLB player prop bet: Texas Rangers first 5 innings team total under 1.5 (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.
In general, I do not love betting unders on first 5 inning team totals very often. Unearned runs often ruin the bet, leading to more value on an under earned runs prop for that pitcher. Today, however, we are getting a good enough price to make up for it, and I believe that Freddy Peralta is poised to remain sharp and in good form. Peralta enters this game with a 2.50 ERA and 16 wins on the season through his first 29 starts. Those 29 starts have spanned 159.2 innings of work, and the right-hander is currently enjoying the best stretch of his season. Peralta has allowed zero earned runs in his last 5 starts combined, and the start prior resulted in 5 innings of 1-run ball.
Now Peralta faces an inconsistent Texas Rangers lineup that has yet to see him this season. The lack of familiarity should benefit Peralta early on, at least the first time through the order or so. Peralta can become shaky with his command from time to time, but we have seen him mow down quality lineups recently even without the best of command. At -125 or better I see value on this prop.
Best MLB player prop bet: Chris Sale (ATL) over 6.5 strikeouts recorded (-115)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.
We have a strikeout prop for our 2nd wager as Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves faces off against the Chicago Cubs. Sale won the Cy Young last season in what was a terrific bounce back season. While injuries have kept him to only 17 starts made so far this season, Sale’s effectiveness when on the mound has remained elite. In 102 innings this season the southpaw hurler has posted a 2.38 ERA to match his mark from last season, and he has earned 132 strikeouts along the way. The strikeout angle is what we care about today, as Sale has a 6.5 line for his matchup with Chicago.
Sale has eclipsed this 6.5 total in each of his last 6 starts and 13 of his 17 starts this season overall. Since returning from the injured list Sale has tossed 6 innings of 1-run ball with 9 Ks against the Phillies and 6.2 innings of 1-run ball with 9 Ks against the Mariners. Those are both playoff quality lineups and Sale mowed through them despite the potential for rust. The Cubs are another quality lineup, and they can be a strikeout averse unit at times, but this price is too good to ignore given his track record and current form.
