Javan Shouey
Tyler Mahle has gotten off to a tremendous start this season, posting a 1.80 ERA through his first 11 starts of the season. Today he draws a matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays in his home ballpark, and I am expecting another strong effort from the Rangers’ right-hander. With that in mind, let’s dive into our best MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, May 28, while you can also check out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today!
Get our MLB best bets for today, with our experts boasting a 51-31 record this season!
Best MLB player prop bet: Tyler Mahle (TEX) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-150)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Texas Rangers have seen their offensive production plummet this season, but their starting rotation has kept them afloat in the AL West with Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi all pitching in elite form. Today we will focus specifically on the production of Mahle and his matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. The right-hander has pitched 60 combined innings across his first 11 starts this season while earning a 5-2 record and posting a 1.80 ERA. His underlying run indicators are closer to 3 but he has been outstanding any way you cut it.
Mahle is not a high strikeout rate arm, but he has done a very good job limiting hard contact, ranking 78th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed and 64th percentile in barrel rate this season. Each of his 4 offerings are used at least 10.5% of the time which is helpful when looking to pitch deep into games the 2nd and 3rd time through the batting order.
Mahle is a reverse-splits pitcher that thrives when facing left-handed batters, and Toronto is a mainly right-handed heavy lineup. That being said, Mahle has been outstanding in his home outings, posting a 0.95 ERA through his first 7 home starts spanning 38 innings of work. This includes tough matchups against the Astros and Dodgers as well. The roof should be closed at Globe Life Field which helps out cause as well. Toronto also has a lack of familiarity with Mahle as active Blue Jay batters have just 20 combined plate appearances against the 30-year-old. In that brief sample they have just a .516 OPS to showcase, and I expect Mahle to remain under 2.5 earned runs allowed for the 11th time this season with a strong outing tonight.
Read our full Blue Jays vs Rangers prediction for today’s matchup
