Javan Shouey
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers have battled the last 2 days, each earning 1-run wins in extra innings to get this series started between 2 World Series hopeful rosters. Game 3 of this series will see Tony Gonsolin and Griffin Canning take the mound, and our best MLB player prop bet for this matchup involves the Mets’ offense and their matchup with the Dodgers’ starter. Let’s dive in, while you can also grab our MLB picks for EVERY game today.
Lock in our expert’s MLB best bets for today’s matchups — he’s got a 32-21 record this season!
New York Mets first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +105 odds. Risking 1u.
While I don’t expect overly strong outings from either starting option in today’s matchup between the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers, I am looking to target Tony Gonsolin specifically. Today’s best prop bet is looking for 3 runs within the first 5 innings from the New York Mets offense, and they have the benefit of increased familiarity given their recent matchup with Gonsolin. The veteran starter faced the Mets just 2 starts ago on 5/24. It is tough facing any MLB lineup for the 2nd time within a close proximity, let alone a lineup as talented as New York’s. The Mets also had success in that first matchup with 7 hits, 3 walks, and 4 earned runs against Gonsolin’s record. He has now allowed 4 or more earned runs in each of his last 3 starts and has allowed 3 or more runs within the first 5 innings in 4 of 6 starts made so far this season.
Gonsolin has worrisome underlying metrics with his 5.23 ERA shadowed by an even more daunting 6.01 FIP. His hard contact allowed is compounded by his inability to keep the ball down, earning a ground ball rate of just 37.2% so far this season through 31 innings pitched. He is also issuing too many free passes for my liking and his strikeout production has fallen off a cliff since his first 2 starts against the Marlins. New York has been better when facing right-handed pitching this season, and since May 1st they have the league’s 7th best wOBA with a 114 wRC+ against right-handers. They have been a patient lineup with the 8th highest walk rate in that span, and their hard-hit rate during that sample ranks as 3rd best in MLB. Given the +120-price tag on this prop, I am more than willing to place the bet, and I would comfortably bet this down to about +105 odds.
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