Javan Shouey
Joe Ryan and I both battled illness this week but it is time to bounce back with strong performances on this beautiful slate of Saturday baseball. Ryan is set to face off against the San Francisco Giants and I am looking to bet on his command of the strike zone at a nice price. We also have a plus-money bet on Lance McCullers Jr. of the Houston Astros, so let’s dive in!
Joe Ryan (MIN) under 1.5 walks allowed (+115)
Odds available at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds. Risking 1u.
Often times when there is a line this strange there is an underlying reason why, and I think there are a couple factors at play worth mentioning. Joe Ryan had his scheduled start pushed back due to a severe illness that he described as “genuinely the worst illness I’ve ever had.” He is on 7 days rest as a result which could throw off his rhythm, but his recent illness could also perhaps result in a shorter leash from Rocco Baldelli who tends to pull starters early anyway in favor of his strong bullpen. That bullpen is not perfectly rested but they do have at least 4 available arms for tonight’s game. The other factor playing into the nice price we are getting is that the Giants tend to be a patient team at the plate. That also is not really a concern for me as Ryan is one of the sport’s premier strike throwers, and he has proven over time that he is willing to fill up the zone in even the toughest of matchups.
San Francisco does have a 10.3% walk rate against right-handed pitching this season, a mark tied for the 4th highest rate in the sport. Since April 25 that rate has fallen to 7.9% which ranks 19th in that span, and 6 of 11 opposing right-handed starters have remained under 1.5 walks. This includes Chris Paddack issuing zero free passes in yesterday’s outing despite covering 7.1 innings of work. Ryan ranks 97th percentile so far this season with his 3.2% walk rate. His 67.3% strike rate and 68.4% first-pitch strike rate each rank 14th best among 135 qualified starting pitchers so far. Ryan is capable of drawing chases outside the zone, but his 55.5% zone rate gets him ahead early in counts and forces batters into quick plate appearances more often than not. After remaining under 1.5 walks allowed in 6 of 7 starts so far this season, 18 of 23 last season, and 19 of 29 starts in 2023, I am more than willing to bite at this plus-money price.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) over 2.5 walks allowed (+145)
Odds available at time of publishing. Playable to +125 odds. Risking 1u.
Unlike Joe Ryan, Lance McCullers Jr. has never had very strong command of the strike zone, relying more on his superb batted ball metrics and an ability to generate the 3rd strike. Injuries kept McCullers away from the game during the 2024 and 2023 seasons, and he only made 8 regular season starts in 2022. It has been a while since we have seen the right-hander at full capacity, but after what I saw in his season debut it is clear that he can still struggle to find the zone. McCullers generated a 27.8% first-pitch strike rate against the White Sox in Chicago last Sunday, and in each season of his career he has posted a below-average rate in that department. Just 51 of his 87 total pitches thrown in that outing were for a strike and he generated a chase rate of only 20.5%. Now McCullers faces a Cincinnati lineup that chases at the league’s 5th lowest rate since the start of the season.
Lance had a 1.5 line with -130 juice towards the over in his season debut, a line I was more than happy to take. I don’t expect to win as often when betting on a 2.5 line, but I do expect to win more than the +145-price tag suggests in this matchup. McCullers Jr. made 28 regular season starts back in 2021, his last fully healthy season. Among those 28 starts the righty walked at least 3 batters 16 times. His 11.1% walk rate that season ranked just 17th percentile and he has posted a career-long walk rate of 9.9%. Cincinnati has several batters in their projected lineup willing to draw a walk, including as many as 7 batters with an overall walk rate of 9.7% or higher this season. Both AJ Smith-Shawver and Hunter Brown have walked 4 Reds within the last week, and I expect at least 3 from McCullers Jr. today in his return to Houston.
