Javan Shouey
We’ve got a strong lineup of MLB action today which includes a whole host of afternoon games. Pitchers Logan Webb and Hunter Brown have both started their 2025 campaigns at Cy Young levels, and today I am backing these talented arms as they take on advantageous matchups on a getaway day. Let’s dive into my best MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, May 21, while you can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY game today!
Best MLB player prop bet: Logan Webb (SF) over 18.5 outs (-105)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds. Risking 1u.
For nearly the entirety of Logan Webb’s career, the right-handed ground-ball merchant has been dominant when pitching in his home ballpark. Webb pounds the strike zone with confidence as the San Francisco breeze helps kill fly balls and his deep arsenal of pitches helps generate off-balance swings and ground-ball outs. San Francisco’s ace is one of the premier pitchers in the sport and is currently pitching at a Cy Young level, with a 2.42 ERA and 2.08 FIP through his first 10 starts. Those 10 starts have spanned a combined 63.1 innings of work while covering this 18.5 outs mark in 6 of 10 starts.
Webb has cleared 18.5 outs in each of his 4 starts at home so far, allowing just 2 combined earned runs along the way. He surpassed 18.5 outs in 10 of 15 home starts in 2024 as well and has become a reliable option to pitch deep into games for the Giants. Today he faces a Kansas City lineup that has been a below-average unit against right-handed pitching this season. On the season, they rank 26th in wOBA with a league-low walk rate and the 6th-lowest rate of hard contact against right-handers. While they have been a bit better in May, they are still swinging at the 4th-highest rate, and on the year, they average the 3rd-fewest pitches seen per plate appearance. I expect Webb to deliver another efficient start at home.
Find out today’s MLB best bets with our expert boasting a 29-16 record this season!
Best MLB player prop bet: Hunter Brown (HOU) over 6.5 strikeouts (-132)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds. Risking 1u.
Hunter Brown has also been pitching at an exceptional level. The Houston starter has become a co-ace with Framber Valdez atop their starting rotation and has one of the longer leashes in the sport. With 91 or more pitches in each start and an average of 96.4 per start, Brown has been allowed to work through tough innings and as a result has completed 6 full frames or more in 8 of 9 outings. From a strikeout perspective he has been elite, recording 67 punchouts through his 56.1 innings of work. He has 7 or more strikeouts in 7 of 9 outings with 8 more in 6 of those starts. This includes exactly 9 strikeouts in each of his last 5 starts, even against low-strikeout-rate lineups like Toronto and Kansas City.
Now Brown faces the Tampa Bay Rays, who have the league’s 5th-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and the 3rd-highest rate this month. Tampa Bay has faced Brown for just 18 combined plate appearances so their lack of familiarity should favor the pitcher early on, especially with the type of stuff he has. Brown has a 6-pitch mix with 4 of those 6 pitches earning at least 15.1% usage. Each of those 4 offerings are capable of earning whiffs in 2-strike counts and his 4-seamer has been particularly lethal in that department. Look for Brown to attack the zone and earn enough whiffs for 7 or more strikeouts today.
Read our full Astros vs Rays prediction for our expert’s 3-star best bet
