Javan Shouey
Today’s slate of MLB action has a large number of enticing matchups from a betting perspective, and I’m going to have several bets placed today. My favorite bet on today’s slate involves the Philadelphia Phillies jumping ahead to an early lead against the Athletics, but I also have analysis on 2 other prop bets for today in this article. Let’s dive in!
Philadelphia Phillies first 5 innings -0.5 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds. Risking 1u.
Cristopher Sanchez gets outshined in his own rotation by the steady and dominant Zack Wheeler, but the Phillies have another ace-caliber arm in their rotation this season with the way their southpaw is tossing the ball. Sanchez has a 4-1 record through his first 9 starts this season, posting a 3.10 ERA and 1.18 WHIP along the way. His underlying numbers are equally as strong and his career-best 28.5% K% has had a lot to do with his progression this season. Sanchez is winning both in and out of the strike zone with his ability to generate whiffs and chases, and he is also doing a good job of limiting hard contact. The left-hander is an elite ground-ball artist with his 55.9% ground-ball rate ranking 91st percentile this season. He draws a road start today against a solid lineup in a tough environment, but despite the hitter-friendly ballpark I expect a strong effort from Sanchez. He has a 2.66 ERA and 3.08 FIP in 20.1 road innings so far this season and his ground ball prowess should help suppress the Athletics’ home run tendencies at home.
While the Athletics have a productive offense against southpaw pitching this season, ranking 6th in wOBA with a 117 wRC+, the Philliea have been even better against left-handers with the 5th-best wOBA and a wRC+ of 120. Philadelphia also draws the weaker starting option in today’s game as they match up with Jeffrey Springs. Springs is a fine starter overall, but he has struggled adapting to his new home ballpark, as have several Athletics arms this season. Through his first 20.0 innings at home, Springs has posted a 6.30 ERA and 5.68 FIP while surrendering 4, 3, 5 and 2 earned runs in his respective home starts. Overall, Springs ranks just 37th percentile in walk rate and 39th percentile in barrel rate while earning a 23rd percentile strikeout rate. Philadelphia thrives in all 3 of those categories offensively and I like how they match up with Springs today. Look for the Phillies to jump ahead with an early lead and carry that lead through the end of the 5th inning.
Jose Berrios (TOR) Over 1.5 walks allowed (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
Jose Berrios has been a bit of an enigma for me from a betting perspective in recent seasons, as he always seems to outperform tough matchups and underperform the softer spots on the schedule. Today I am looking to take advantage of a tough scheduling spot for the veteran right-hander, as he is tasked with a close proximity rematch against a divisional opponent he just struggled against. Berrios faced this Tampa Bay Rays lineup just 2 starts ago, allowing 8 base runners and 5 earned runs in his 5.1 innings of work. Now, Tampa Bay batters have the added benefit of increased familiarity as they head into Saturday’s rematch with Berrios. The Rays’ active hitters have well over 100 combined plate appearances against the right-hander anyway, so familiarity should be no issue in this matchup.
Berrios has had solid command of the strike zone at times during his career, but random seasons have occurred where his control takes a dip. That has been the case this season with Berrios posting a 10.0% walk rate while issuing multiple free passes in 7 of his first 10 starts. Not only has he had several games with 2 walks allowed, but he has issued 3 or more free passed in 5 of his 10 starts, as well. His issues have been multiplied when facing left-handed batters, as his walk rate against lefties spikes to 13.5%. Berrios has always walked a higher rate of lefties in his career, and we can expect to see 6 left-handed hitters in Tampa Bay’s lineup today. He also has an extremely long leash with 25 or more batters faced in each start this month including 27 in 3 of his 4 starts.
Los Angeles Angels first 5 innings team total Over 2.5 (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds. Risking 1u.
Cal Quantrill is someone I am always willing to bet against, but the real reasoning for today’s attack on the Marlins right-hander is the current form of this Los Angeles Angels offense. Los Angeles is crushing right-handed pitching of late, scoring 4 or more earned runs off of 5 of the last 6 right-handers they have faced. During the month of May against right-handers the Angels sit 7th in wOBA while generating a 116 wRC+. Zach Neto has been tearing the cover off the ball since moving into the leadoff spot, and over his last 162 games played he has been one of the premier shortstops in MLB. The Angels are also getting contributions from Yoan Moncada who has a 148 wRC+ in 23 games since being activated off the IL. Taylor Ward is on a tear with 9 home runs this month and 7 in his last 11 games bringing his season-long total to 15 already. Logan O’Hoppe, Nolan Schanuel and Jorge Soler also each have a respective wRC+ of 113 or higher against right-handers, making their lineup deep with production from several sources.
Quantrill has looked better so far this month with 5 earned runs allowed across 14.1 innings, but he still allowed 24 earned runs in his first 26.2 IP and has been far worse when on the road so far in 2025. Through 22 innings on the road, he has posted a 7.36 ERA while earning a far lower strikeout rate. Overall, Quantrill ranks 26th percentile or worse in ground ball rate, hard hit rate, barrel rate, and xBA while failing to earn whiffs and still issuing free passes at an above average rate. Wind is projected to be blowing out at around 8 MPH, and I like the Angels offense to produce early against Quantrill.
