Javan Shouey
Weather is going to play a major role in Saturday’s MLB slate of games, as there are extremely favorable hitting conditions in several different games today. The 2 most hitter-friendly settings today are in Coors Field and in Wrigley Field. This article covers my favorite prop bet for the matchup in Wrigley Field this afternoon between the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners.
Let’s dive in!
Seattle Mariners F5 team total Over 2.5 (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
Wrigley Field is the most wind-receptive part in Major League Baseball, and today winds are blowing out toward left-center at around 20-25 MPH. Temperatures are also in the 90s with high humidity which is setting up for ideal hitting conditions overall. The Seattle Mariners play in one of the more pitcher-friendly home parks in the sport, so coming to Wrigley with weather like this is a drastic but pleasant change. Cal Raleigh hit 2 more home runs yesterday to bring his MLB-leading total to 29, and I expect to see more long-balls from the Mariners early in Saturday’s matchup.
Cade Horton will go for the Cubs on Saturday, marking his eighth appearance and seventh start this season. The right-hander has posted a 3.47 ERA through his first 36.1 innings of work with a 3.85 xERA and 3.73 FIP. Those are respectable marks, but I do fear for the rookie hurler in this setting with his low strikeout rate and high barrel rate. Horton has earned a 19.0% strikeout rate and his 11.5%-barrel rate ranks just 12th percentile. He has allowed 3 home runs in just 16.2 innings at home and the Mariners average the fourth-most home runs per game on the road this season. Seattle ranks fourth in wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road with a 115 wRC+ and the third-highest walk rate this year, and I expect that success to continue this afternoon.
