Javan Shouey
We’ve got a more-than-full 17-game MLB slate today with a couple of doubleheaders to get excited for. With so much going on, I’ve assessed every game and have picked out my best MLB player prop bet for Wednesday, May 14, targeting Randy Vasquez. Vasquez has struggled to command the strike zone this season and I am betting that will continue in his matchup with the Angels today. Check out the reasoning below, while you can also get our MLB picks for all of today’s big matchups.
Best MLB player prop bet: Randy Vasquez (SD) over 1.5 walks allowed (-110)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
While there was some awesome value towards the under on listed walk props at the beginning of the season, the market seems to have over corrected a bit as I have been finding more value on overs in this market during recent weeks. This is true today as well with Randy Vasquez of the Padres receiving just a -110 price to walk 2 or more batters.
Vasquez has issued 2 or more free passes in 7 of his first 8 starts this season with his lone under coming in his most recent outing. He faced the swing-happy Colorado Rockies in that outing and walked only 1 batter across his 25 batters faced. Vasquez has still walked 25 batters within his first 38.1 innings and his 14.5% walk rate ranks just 5th percentile among MLB pitchers this season. He struggles jumping ahead in counts early, registering a first-pitch strike rate of just 58.6%, the 36th lowest mark among 136 qualified pitchers. Among those same 136 pitchers, his overall strike percentage is the 6th lowest mark.
Los Angeles is not the most disciplined lineup in baseball, and they are among the worst lineups when it comes to striking out against right-handed pitching. They have shown a bit more patience of late, chasing on pitches outside the zone at a lower rate during the month of May compared to their April production. Dylan Cease only walked 1 batter in his matchup with them yesterday, but Michael King, Zach Eflin, and Kyle Gibson all walked at least 2 in this spot within the last 4 days despite generally being solid command pitchers. At -125 or better I am more than willing to bet on 2 walks from Vasquez today.
