Game 3 is where a series can shift. It’s where a series can be put on ice and where a comeback can start. There are multiple storylines that can emerge and all apply to the 3-game slate on Thursday’s offering. Front and center is the Nuggets-Timberwolves rivalry, as Minnesota hosts Denver in the Twin Cities with the series deadlocked at 1-1. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 pm ET on PRIME. Thursday’s slate also includes the Hawks hosting the Knicks at 7:00 pm ET, while the Cavaliers take a 2-0 lead to Toronto to square off with the Raptors at 8:00 pm ET. Both fixtures will also be featured on PRIME. You can find our NBA picks for all of today’s matchups, along with EVERY GAME through the entire postseason. But for now, here are our expert NBA best bets for today’s 3 playoff games on Thursday, April 23.
Knicks vs Hawks NBA best bet: Hawks -1.5 (-110)
Odds available at Underdog Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Game 2’s 1-point Atlanta win at Madison Square Garden is being dismissed as fluky, but that interpretation ignores the broader trend in this series. Through 2 games, Atlanta has been the more consistent side, while New York’s Game 1 victory required elite shot-making that’s difficult to replicate. That outing looks increasingly like an outlier rather than a baseline. The market will double down on the “must-win” narrative for the Knicks, and that’s exactly where value often flips. Public money tends to gravitate toward urgency angles. However, Atlanta laying a short number, even without a multi-possession win yet in this series, signals underlying respect from oddsmakers. That’s a clue worth chewing over.
Matchup-wise, the Hawks’ offensive versatility and ability to generate perimeter looks have consistently stressed New York’s defense. If Game 2 was closer to the true median outcome, Atlanta has the edge. Fading the emotional public narrative and backing the more versatile team offers value with the Hawks. Remember, if the Knicks crash out early there will be carnage in New York. Atlanta, meanwhile, is playing freely but with a purpose. The narratives are influencing the market’s take on this series, but in reality, the Hawks could actually be the better team. They are favored here for a reason. Lay the bucket.
Read our full Knicks vs Hawks Game 3 prediction
Cavaliers vs Raptors NBA best bet: Raptors ML (+130)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Despite Cleveland taking the first 2 games by double digits, the market hesitation to price them as a strong road favorite is telling. The Cavaliers’ profile remains heavily tied to three-point efficiency, making them inherently volatile — especially away from home. A cold shooting stretch can flatten their offense quickly, and that risk is amplified in a hostile environment like the Great White North. Toronto’s physicality and crowd energy often elevate their play in these spots.
The Raptors bring defensive length and structure that are specifically designed to disrupt perimeter rhythm. Over a playoff series, those traits tend to surface as adjustments tighten. While Cleveland has benefited from strong shooting early, regression remains a looming factor. Game 3 represents a classic inflection point: a team returning home with their backs against the wall in the series, with imminent tactical adjustments in place. Given Cleveland’s dependency on shooting variance, backing the Raptors outright provides strong value in a game that profiles closer than the series score suggests. Moreover, this is all but an elimination game because if the Raps go down 3-0, the series is all but over. I am backing Toronto to make things interesting.
Read our full Cavaliers vs Raptors Game 3 prediction
Nuggets vs Timberwolves NBA best bet: Timberwolves ML (+110)
Odds available at Novig at time of publishing.
This series has evolved into one of the most competitive rivalries in the Western Conference, with games consistently decided on thin margins. It also has been nothing short of a soap opera. While narratives around Nikola Jokić and Anthony Edwards having some sort of a personal beef add intrigue, the betting angle is simpler: these teams are evenly matched, making situational edges critical. It also makes the price next to Minnesota of interest, as well.
Minnesota at home provides one of the aforementioned critical situational edges. The Timberwolves tend to elevate their defensive intensity and physicality on their own floor, which directly impacts Denver’s rhythm-based offense. In tightly-contested games, those marginal gains matter. From a pricing standpoint, getting plus money in what effectively projects as a coin-flip game is most noteworthy. Denver’s championship pedigree keeps them favored in many spots, but that can create value on the opposing side when the matchup is this tight. In a rivalry setting with playoff intensity, backing the home underdog is the sharp approach at the price on offer. I am taking the Timberwolves outright.
Read our full Nuggets vs Timberwolves Game 3 prediction
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