Three teams are staring elimination in the face. That’s what you will hear in the build-up to Thursday’s slate of NBA Playoffs action. And who are those teams, you ask? The Atlanta Hawks, the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Denver Nuggets. But each of these teams have a different story as to how they arrived there and where they stand now. Atlanta will host the New York Knicks for Game 6, looking every bit like they are coming apart at the seam after looking primed to stage an upset in the early phases of their series. Now, the Hawks fight for the life in the ATL. Tip-off is set for 7:00 PM ET. The Denver Nuggets will be travelling to the Twin Cities with the hope of keeping their postseason alive against their rivals, the Timberwolves. However, Minnesota despite leading 3-1 in the series, appears to be in danger of letting the series slip away after Anthony Edwards has been put on the shelf after Game 4 with an untimely knee injury. That game will commence at 9:30 PM ET. Headlining the slate? Game 6 between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers. What is most compelling about this match-up is the possibility of Philadelphia forcing a Game 7, despite being huge underdogs in this series, and a double-digit dog in Boston in Game 5 with elimination staring them down. Now, the Sixers get their divisional rivals at home with a chance to force tomorrow. Tip-off time is set for 8:00 PM ET on Peacock.
You can find our NBA picks for all of today’s matchups, along with EVERY GAME through the entire postseason. But for now, here are our expert NBA best bets for today’s 3 playoff games on Thursday, April 30.
Knicks vs Hawks NBA best bet: Knicks -1.5 (-110)
Odds available at Underdog Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This series has flipped decisively, and it’s not just about results, it’s about control. Over the last two games, New York hasn’t just beaten Atlanta, they’ve dictated every aspect of play. Wins by 16 on the road and 29 at home point to a widening gap, especially when paired with defensive dominance. The Knicks have held the Hawks under 100 points in both contests, forcing them into inefficient half-court possessions while maintaining offensive balance on the other end. New York is pulling away.
But the market loves desperation and the narrative has unfolded. Atlanta is at home, facing elimination, but that only matters if there’s a clear adjustment available. Right now, there isn’t. New York has found a higher level defensively, and that travels. When a team starts controlling pace, limiting shot quality, and sustaining offense simultaneously, it’s difficult to reverse quickly. At a short number, this isn’t about chasing a blowout, it’s about backing the team in control to win. The Knicks are there, and they’re positioned to close this out. I am happy to lay the bucket with the Knickerbockers.
Celtics vs 76ers NBA best bet: 76ers +180 (ML)
Odds available at Sleeper Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Philadelphia has already shown it can win in this series on its terms, and that’s what makes the price so appealing. Facing elimination in Game 5, the Sixers went into Boston and won by 16 as a double-digit underdog, doing so through defense and control rather than hot shooting. That’s the blueprint, and a blueprint they can repeat.
When Philadelphia has won in this series, Boston has been held under 100 points both times. That speaks to a repeatable formula: physical defense, slower tempo, and forcing half-court execution. Boston is comfortable in that environment as well, which compresses the margin and keeps games tight. With the total sitting around 212, this projects as a grind where possessions matter. In those types of games, underdogs like Philly who are fighting for their life in their own barn have that much more equity. Philadelphia has already given Boston a fight, in a series many thought would be a walk-over for Boston. I like the Sixers to push this to a decisive Game 7.
Read our full Celtics vs 76ers Game 6 prediction
Nuggets vs Timberwolves NBA best bet: Under 225.5 (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I am going to double down here after Game 5. This is a spot where game script clearly points toward the Under, especially given what’s already played out in this series. When Denver scored 125 in Game 5, they won comfortably, that’s the exact outcome Minnesota must avoid. If the Timberwolves are going to try to close this out at home, the formula is already established: slow the pace, defend, and limit Denver’s offensive rhythm.
Minnesota has shown it can do exactly that. They’ve held the Nuggets under 100 points twice and under 115 in three of the five games played. In each of those contests where they did that, they controlled the game and won. That’s the framework. But that concept got away from the Wolves in Game 5. Unless Minnesota wants to this series get away from them and go back to Denver, the T-Wolves must implement a defensive approach, especially at home with the support behind them. I expect the Wolves to employ that approach here and that naturally drags pace down and reduces possessions. In Game 6, anticipate a more deliberate, physical game where scoring is harder to come by, making the Under the right side.
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