Ricky Dimon
Similar to the YRFI/NRFI market in baseball, you don’t have to wait long when it comes to first baskets in the NBA. In fact, this is about as quick of a bet payout as you can possibly image.
The Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves now changes locations after the Thunder took care of business in each of the first 2 contests at home. Game 3 in Minnesota on Saturday night is a virtual must-win situation for the Timberwolves. They started each of the first 2 games relatively strong before things got away from them in the second half. Minnesota would do well to put the first points on the board tonight, but will that be the case?
You can find out our NBA picks for Thunder vs Timberwolves along with every remaining game of the playoffs, but for now let’s break down my first basket best bet for Game 3.
Thunder vs Timberwolves first basket best bet: Julius Randle (+625)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
The most important aspect of the first-basket market is to win the opening team, because that obviously gives you the first chance at paydirt. The Timberwolves are winning more than 52 percent of their jumps this season, while the Thunder come in at less than 49.5 percent. Most importantly, Rudy Gobert of Minnesota has won each of the first 2 tips in this series at the expense of OKC’s Chet Holmgren. With Minny expected to win the jump and also playing at home in front of a crowd that will be rowdy — especially right at tipoff — has me leaning toward ‘Wolves players.
Specifically, I like Randle the most. He has made 12 first baskets during the 2024-25 campaign, putting him right at a 15 percent clip. He also has a 19.4 percent first-shot rate and 16.7 percent first-basket rate at home. I expect him to come out firing on Saturday, plus Oklahoma City has been putting the absolute clamps down on Anthony Edwards. The Thunder don’t want Ant Man to get hot, so count on Randle getting some open looks — including on the opening possession.
Also check out our Thunder vs Timberwolves Same Game Parlay picks at +405 odds
