A wildly entertaining Super Wild Card Weekend has come and gone. Now it’s time for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, and it all gets started with a showdown in the AFC between the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos on Saturday afternoon. Denver earned a first-round bye as the #1 seed, while Buffalo went on the road to beat Jacksonville this past Sunday.
I have been cashing Same Game Parlays left and right throughout the season, including 2 of my 4 efforts during Week 16 (+650 in Packers vs Bears and +600 in 49ers vs Colts). I also hit a +675 play for Texans vs Chargers in Week 17. Let’s keep the momentum rolling with my SGP for this 4:30 pm ET kickoff on CBS. Also be sure to check out our full Bills vs Broncos predictions.
Bills ML (-108)
Under 46.5 (-110)
Josh Allen to score a touchdown (-120)
Parlay odds: +531
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a Bills victory. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the under. But even if Allen finds the endzone with his feet, there is no reason why the under can’t cash. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Bills ML (-108)
I don’t have a whole lot of faith in either team, but I have even less faith in Denver – especially in a playoff situation. There is no way to sugarcoat it; I think the Broncos are frauds. That’s not to say they aren’t a good football team; they just aren’t #1 seed caliber. Their 14-3 record features a whopping 11 one-possession wins. That includes by 2 points over the Jets at a neutral site, by 1 over the Giants at home, by 3 over Las Vegas at home, by 3 over Kansas City at home, by 1 in overtime against Washington, by 7 at Las Vegas and by 7 at Kansas City without Patrick Mahomes. You never have to apologize for winning in the NFL, but those are some rather alarming results. Although this is not the best Bills team we have seen in recent seasons, this is a group that knows how to get the job done on the big stage. We just saw it again when Allen and company went into Jacksonville and took down a red-hot Jaguars squad. Denver may be the more well rounded of the 2, but I’ll take Allen over Bo Nix in a head-to-head playoff showdown any day of the week.
Under 46.5 (-110)
The under correlates nicely with Buffalo on the money line, because I don’t think the visitors can score enough on Denver’s defense to win some kind of high-octane shootout. The Broncos’ defense is simply too good for those types of shenanigans. Just as Allen has to play well to give the Bills a chance, so too does their defense. They are facing a Denver offense that has never been great but has become even worse since running back JK Dobbins was lost for the season in Week 10. Since Dobbins went down, the Broncos’ EPA per rush metrics plunged from #14 to #25 in the NFL. Asking Nix, a second-year quarterback, to bear the burden in a playoff game against such an experienced opponent does not seem like an ideal scenario. On the other side of the ball, Allen has not had a ton of weapons to work with throughout this 2025 campaign and now Gabe Davis is gone with a torn ACL – which he sustained last weekend against the Jaguars. I’m going with a relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday.
Josh Allen to score a touchdown (-120)
Allen generally takes matters into his own hands when the stakes are highest. That should especially be the case now that Davis is sidelined and the receiver corps is even worse than it already was prior to last weekend. Allen rushed for 2 touchdowns in Buffalo’s victory at Jacksonville, giving him 9 in 14 lifetime postseason appearances. In his last 6 playoff games dating back to the 2023 campaign, the Wyoming product has found the endzone 7 times. It’s also worth noting that Allen scored 14 touchdowns in 16 regular-season outings (not including Week 18 against the Jets in which he took just 1 snap to extend his consecutive games played streak). Even against a vaunted Denver defense, there is no reason why Allen can’t score.
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