The NFL’s London Series continues in Week 6 with an AFC showdown between the Denver Broncos and New York Jets. Denver comes in with a 3-2 after pulling off a humongous victory at Philadelphia in Week 5. New York is the last winless team in the entire league at 0-5.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 9:30 am ET on NFL Network. Also be sure to check out our full Broncos vs Jets predictions.
Jets +7.5 (-120)
Under 43.5 (-105)
Breece Hall to record 80+ rushing yards (+132)
Parlay odds: +550
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as New York running back Breece Hall racking up his fair share of rushing yards would obviously work well with a Jets cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the under. But even if Hall does have a big game, there is no reason why the under can’t cash. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Jets +7.5 (-120)
Despite their horrendous record, the Jets have been competitive more often than not, having played 3 games decided by one-possession margins. Three of their 5 losses have come by no more than 6 points and they have twice lost by just 2 points, including at Tampa Bay in Week 3. As for the Broncos, 2 of their 3 wins have come in one-possession games (their losses are to the Colts and Chargers). Additionally, a spread of more than a touchdown is quite simply a lot in the NFL. Time and time again we have seen heavy favorites struggle to cover – and sometimes to even win at all (see the Eagles against the Giants earlier this week). Denver QB Bo Nix’s passing numbers are unspectacular so far this season. The second-year player out of Oregon has passed for no more than 206 yards in 3 of 5 contests and his TD-to-INT ratio is a modest 2-to-1 (8 touchdowns, 4 interceptions). I don’t see the Broncos scoring enough to cover on Sunday. Moreover, an unfamiliar setting and situation for each team tends to level the playing field.
Under 43.5 (-105)
The under correlates well with the Jets covering because they probably can’t keep up with the Broncos in any kind of offensive shootout. If New York wants to be competitive, it will probably have to make this a defensive struggle. It averages a respectable number of points (22.4 per game) but has turned the ball over 8 times – tied for fourth most in the NFL. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s squad now runs into a Dever defense that ranks second league in scoring at 16.8 ppg and fifth overall at 288.6 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos are solid but nothing special. They have put up between 20 and 28 points in all 5 contests. New York cornerback Sauce Gardner should be able to contain Denver receiver Courtland Sutton, and the Broncos not have much else to speak of in their receiving outfit.
Breece Hall to record 80+ rushing yards (+132)
Denver’s defense is good, but it’s not entirely dominant against the run. The Broncos are outside the top 10 in yards per carry allowed at 4.1. Hall should be in line for a productive outing, in part because the Jets should feature a run-heavy offense. As heavy underdogs, they will want to move the clock and shorten the game as much as possible. Hall has exceeded 80 rushing yards 3 times already this season and has gained at least 107 yards on 2 occasions. The Iowa State product is playing inspired football; even if New York isn’t going anywhere, he may be able to increase his trade value before potentially getting dealt to a contender prior to the deadline. I expect other teams will like what they see on Sunday.
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