Winners of 4 games in their last 5 outings, the Milwaukee Bucks head to Oklahoma City for a date with the Thunder. Can the visitors pull off an upset against the shorthanded defending champs? Bucks vs Thunder is Part 1 of the Amazon Prime Video doubleheader on Thursday, tipping off at 7.30 pm ET. As we head into the NBA all-star break, it’s only fitting we go out in style, and I’ve pieced together my Bucks vs Thunder parlay picks at +379 odds, featuring a spread prediction and a couple of NBA player prop bets. Let’s break it down, while you can also check our NBA picks for all 3 games being played this Thursday night.
Bucks +13 (-110)
Myles Turner to score 15+ points (+172)
Chet Holmgren 1+ made threes (-480)
Bucks vs Thunder parlay odds: +379
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Bucks vs Thunder parlay pick: Milwaukee Bucks +13 over Oklahoma City Thunder (-110)
This isn’t a full endorsement of Milwaukee’s current form, but the spot creates value on the number. With the All-Star break approaching, this is the type of game where a team like Oklahoma City may naturally prioritize preservation over urgency. For a contender with its position largely secure, the focus shifts toward managing minutes, rotating deeper into the bench, and avoiding unnecessary wear on core players. That matters when the spread climbs to this range. Even if the Thunder control the game early, there’s little incentive to push margin late. These pre-break environments often produce quieter second halves, where favorites protect legs rather than extend leads.
That’s where large underdogs gain value. Milwaukee, meanwhile, enters with a different mindset. A team struggling for form often treats matchups against elite opponents as a measuring opportunity. With nothing to protect and little external expectation, the Bucks can play freer, extending rotations but still competing for meaningful minutes. The key risk in laying big numbers isn’t who wins, it’s how the final stages unfold. If Oklahoma City is ahead comfortably, the bench-heavy stretch opens the door for a classic backdoor cover. This is strictly about the natural risk of laying a heavy number in a pre-break spot. Grab the points.
Read our full Bucks vs Thunder prediction for tonight’s matchup on Amazon Prime Video
Bucks vs Thunder SGP pick: Myles Turner to score 15+ points (+172)
Turner is one of the players on this Bucks roster that has really picked up the level of his play lately, resulting in Milwaukee going 4-1 SU over their last 5 games. In his last 9 appearances the former Pacer is averaging just shy of 16 points per game, a significant increase compared to his 12.9 per game average for the season. He’s excelled with his efficiency numbers as well, connecting on 52% of field goal attempts and on over 40% of his threes. His last 10 outings have seen him clear this line 5 times, with the highlight being the 31 points he dropped on the 76ers two weeks ago.
With the Thunder being one of the weaker three-point defending teams I think that gives Turner a solid chance to roam around the perimeter and knock down some threes. Let’s also not underestimate the revenge factor here – this will be Turner’s first game vs the Thunder since he lost Game 7 of the NBA finals with the Pacers in June of last year. I’m counting on him to perform.
Lock in out expert’s NBA best bets for each of tonight’s matchups as the first half of the NBA season wraps up
Bucks vs Thunder SGP pick: Chet Holmgren 1+ made threes (-480)
Chet Holmgren had a relatively modest showing on Wednesday night, scoring just 13 points on 8 field goal attempts. The Suns didn’t need more from him as they plowed through Phoenix dominating the Suns 136-109. Only taking 8 shots leaves the Thunder big man with a lot of energy for a productive showing against the Bucks on Thursday. He and his counterpart Turner on the other side play a very similar style of play, I’m sure Holmgren will play with an extra edge to outplay the Bucks center here. He’s made at least one three in 3 consecutive meetings with the Bucks, in his last home game against this team he went for 22 and 9 rebounds in just 25 mins of play.
Milwaukee is one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to defending the perimeter – opponents are making almost 37% of shots from beyond the arc against them, so making a three shouldn’t be too difficult for Holmgren here. He’s cleared this line in 34 of 48 games so far, which comes out to a 71% success rate.
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