Ricky Dimon
Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season wraps up with a Monday Night Football double-header. Before the Washington Commanders host the Chicago Bears, the Buffalo Bills visit the Atlanta Falcons. Buffalo (4-1) is looking to bounce back from its first loss, while Atlanta (2-2) is coming off a bye week.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 7:15 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Bills vs Falcons predictions.
Over 49.5 (-118)
Bijan Robinson to record 80+ rushing yards (+110)
Josh Allen to record 40+ rushing yards (+132)
Parlay odds: +630
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson racking up their fair share of rushing yards would both obviously work well with the over. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Over 49.5 (-118)
This is a favorable matchup for Atlanta’s offense. The Falcons are #6 in the NFL in rushing (136.5 yards per game) and the Bills are #28 in rushing defense (145.6 yards per game allowed) in addition to being third-to-last in yards per rush allowed (5.6). Head coach Raheem Morris’ squad was held in check by Tampa Bay in the season opener, but it has since churned out 218, 131 and 128 yards on the ground. Every quarterback benefits from an efficient rushing attack – especially one who is just getting his feet wet in the NFL. If Robinson and Tyler Allgeier can open things up for Michael Penix Jr., the entire Falcons offense will be in business. On the other side of the ball, don’t be fooled by Atlanta’s stalwart defensive numbers. Thim has faced quarterbacks J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young and Marcus Mariota the last 3 games. Now it has to go up against Josh Allen, arguably the best QB – and all-around player – in the NFL. The Bills can make any defense bend…and when the Falcons bend, they usually break. They are #25 league wide in red-zone defense, surrendering a touchdown on 66.7 percent of opponents’ possessions inside the 20-yard line. Playing in a dome (with a retractable roof) will only aid each offense – especially compared to the unpredictable conditions of Orchard Park, for example, this time of year. Expect points aplenty.
Bijan Robinson to record 80+ rushing yards (+110)
It doesn’t take a genius to decipher when Atlanta is or isn’t successful. In 2 wins, Robinson has carried 39 times for 218 yards; in 2 losses, he has rushed 25 times for 96 yards. This isn’t rocket science, folks. Especially against arguably the best team in the NFL, there is only one way the Falcons win on Monday night: by running the football – and specifically running it with Robinson. Atlanta is currently sixth in run-play percentage; it might be – and probably should be – in the top 5 in that department by the end of Week 6.
Josh Allen to record 40+ rushing yards (+132)
Allen has exceeded this number in 3 of the last 4 games and in 2 straight. Twice already this season he has rushed for at least 53 yards. The reigning NFL MVP now faces an Atlanta defense that heading into Week 6 had allowed the 16th-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks despite having played 1 fewer game than almost everyone (bye in Week 5). Last season the Falcons gave up the third-most rushing yards to opposing QBs. The Bills call Allen’s own number a lot, plus he figures to scramble a fair amount against a team that often puts pressure on quarterbacks but rarely brings them down.
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