Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season will begin with a showdown in the AFC between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football. Buffalo is 7-3 but looking up at New England in its division, while Houston is a mediocre 5-5 but certainly still in playoff contention.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime. Also be sure to check out our full Bills vs Texans predictions. I have cashed 2 consecutive Monday Night Football SGPs (+753 SGP on Eagles vs Packers and +750 on Cowboys vs Raiders), so let’s keep the momentum going!
Texans +3.5 alternate spread (+122)
Woody Marks Over 63.5 rushing yards (-114)
Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer (-115)
Parlay odds: +619
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Houston running back Woody Marks racking up his fair share of rushing yards would obviously work well with a Texans cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen to run for a touchdown. But even if he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t be competitive. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Texans +3.5 alternate spread (+122)
I simply can’t bet against the Texans’ defense. Playing at home helps, as well. All things considered, I think Houston can make this game low scoring to the extent that it should be able to stay within a field goal – if not even win it outright. The Texans are #1 in the league by a country mile in total defense, holding opponents to 258.1 yards per game. They are also #1 in scoring (16.3 points per game allowed), #3 in passing (171.0 yards), #3 in rushing (87.1 yards) and #5 in turnovers forced (16). Davis Mills will likely be back under center for Houston with CJ Stroud in concussion protocol, but Mills is a capable backup who has a lot of experience. Meanwhile, Buffalo has lost 2 of their last 3 road games, including by 10 points against Atlanta and by 17 points against Miami. And those 2 teams aren’t even good!
Woody Marks Over 63.5 rushing yards (-114)
There is no denying that the Texans have struggled on the ground this season, but even they can find success against this Bills outfit. Buffalo is atrocious against the run, giving up the second-most rushing yards per contest at 153.0. Its 5.4 yards per carry allowed are also the second most league wide. Marks may not be anything special, but the rookie out of USC is capable of taking advantage. He has churned out 62 yards or more in 3 of the last 7 outings and in 2 of the last 4. Marks should get plenty of attempts as well, given that it is in Houston’s best interest to keep the ball on the ground, move the clock and relegate Allen to the sideline for as long as possible.
Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer (-115)
I have no qualms about throwing this leg into the parlay despite picking Houston to keep it within a field goal. Head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team needs to contain everyone else in order to be competitive. We – the Texans included – can accept Allen finding the endzone as a given. He has scored a ridiculous 7 touchdowns in the last 4 contests, including 3 in this past Sunday’s victory over Tampa Bay. Obviously Houston’s defense is amazing, but that could actually work in Allen’s favor when it pertains to this particular bet. He will probably have to do a lot of improvising when his first reads are taken away. Count on him doing a lot of stuff by himself – that includes taking one in himself for a score.
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