Conference championship week in college football is upon us! A jam-packed Saturday slate kicks off with the Big 12 title game between the BYU Cougars and Texas Tech Red Raiders. College Football Playoff bubble teams will be watching closely, as BYU – which likely has to win – could steal a bid. Texas Tech is in the CFP regardless but would secure a first-round bye with a victory.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 12:00 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out our full BYU vs Texas Tech predictions.
Texas Tech -12.5 (-115)
Under 49.5 (-112)
Cameron Dickey to record 100+ rushing yards (+194)
Parlay odds: +900
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Texas Tech running back Cameron Dickey racking up a bunch of yards would obviously work well with a Red Raiders win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the under. But even if Dickey fares well, there is no reason why this contest can’t be relatively low scoring. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Texas Tech -12.5 (-115)
These 2 teams just faced each other almost exactly a month ago, when Texas Tech took care of business 29-7. BYU may be slightly more competitive at a neutral site and if it doesn’t lose the turnover battle by 3 like it did last time, but this spread should still be larger than 12.5 points. The Red Raiders have forced the second-most turnovers in the entire country (27) and they are facing a freshman quarterback on a big stage, so more takeaways can be expected this weekend. Bear Bachmeier completed 23 of 38 passes for 188 yards with 1 TD, 1 INT and just 12 rushing yards in the first head-to-head matchup. Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, a fringe Heisman Trophy contender, should once again have his way with the BYU offense. On the other side of the ball, QB Behren Morton boasts a 67.8 completion percentage and has 20 touchdown passes compared to only 4 interceptions.
Under 49.5 (-112)
Led by Rodriguez, the Red Raiders’ defense is unreal. They are #1 in the land against the run (68.9 yards per game allowed), #1 in yards per carry allowed (2.3) and #5 in yards per pass attempt allowed (5.4). Unsurprisingly, that leads to opponents scoring just 11.3 points per contest. Only Ohio State and Indiana are ahead of Texas Tech in that department. Bachmeier, who threw 2 interceptions in an unspectacular double-overtime escape against Arizona, simply has his hands full in this matchup. A mere 36 points were scored in the first head-to-head showdown, so 49.5 seems like a generous number for under bettors.
Cameron Dickey to record 100+ rushing yards (+194)
Dickey and fellow RB J’Koby Williams have combined for 1,730 yards and 19 touchdowns. Williams will get his touches, but Dickey is RB1 and – especially in the biggest game of the year to date – will get a majority of the work. The sophomore from Austin, Tex. has churned out 1,023 rushing yards and 13 total scores (11 rushing, 2 receiving). He went for 263 yards on the ground against Kansas and amassed 121 in the first meeting with BYU. The Cougars’ defense is strong, but they are not especially dominant against the run (119.0 yards per game allowed on 3.7 yards per carry).
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