Ricky Dimon
Heading into Sunday’s showdown between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers, the road team in the two Eastern Conference semifinal series are a hard-to-believe 6-0 straight up. That’s right; Indiana leads Cleveland 2-1 and the New York Knicks are 2-1 up on the Boston Celtics, with both underdogs initially leading 2-0 before losing Game 3 at home. The Pacers will be looking to regain control of their series, while the Cavs will hope to tie things up going back to Cleveland.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the action, which tips off at 8:00 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out our full Cavaliers vs Pacers prediction.
Pacers +5 (-106)
Pascal Siakam to score 20+ points (+126)
Max Strus Over 2.5 made 3s (-102)
Parlay odds: +534
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Indiana forward Pascal Siakam scoring his fair share of points would obviously work well with a Pacers cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing Cleveland guard Max Strus to drain a few 3-pointers. But even if Strus does, there is no reason why the home team can’t be competitive. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
Pacers +5 (-106)
I’m not prepared to pick the Pacers on the money line, but they should be able to cover a +5 spread at home. Although Game 3 was not a good one in front of the home crowd, we can’t forget that Indiana prevailed twice in a row on the road. Winning a game in Cleveland is one thing; winning 2 proves that it was no fluke. Any team that can do that is for real. The Pacers may not end up advancing, but they should be able to make this series competitive from start to finish. Indy went 29-11 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in the regular season and it is the healthier of the 2 teams in this matchup, so there are some check marks in the underdog’s favor. I don’t see the Pacers getting blown out twice consecutively in their own gym.
Pascal Siakam to score 20+ points (+126)
Following Haliburton’s heroics in the first 2 games of this series, the Cavs seemed to make a commitment to stopping him at all costs on Friday. Holding him to 4 points on 2-for-8 shooting certainly paid off in a 126-104 victory for the visitors, so their strategy moving forward should be to shut down Haliburton and make other players on the Pacers beat them. In other words, the pressure could be on Siakam to step up. He may be able to do it, too, as he is shooting 13-for-22 from the floor over the past 2 games. The New Mexico State product scored 18 points in Game 3 even though he logged a modest 28 minutes since the outcome was determined long before the final buzzer. Siakam averaged 20.2 ppg during the regular season, so asking him to reach the 20 mark this evening should not be too much.
Max Strus Over 2.5 made 3s (-102)
Draining at least 3 shots from downtown is commonplace for Strus. The former DePaul sharpshooter has accomplished that feat in 7 of the last 9 contests dating back to the regular season, including 5 performances during this stretch with at least 4 triples. Strus is 9-for-20 from the land of plenty over the last 2 games against Indiana. The Pacers have been pretty good at defending the 3-ball this season, but it’s quite clear that all opponents have trouble preventing Strus from finding success behind the line. There is no reason to think is fine form will be halted on Sunday night.
