Following nearly a 2-week layoff after the College Football Playoff Semifinals, the National Championship Game is finally here. The top-seeded, undefeated Indiana Hoosiers have made quite a statement in their run to this point, but they have one final test to pass when they face the feisty Miami Hurricanes in their own stadium. Will the Hoosiers complete their fairy tale run? Or will the ‘Canes have something to say about it in front of their home fans? We will find out Monday night at 7:50pm ET on ESPN.
To get you set for the Natty, I’ve put together a Miami vs. Indiana Same Game Parlay, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s get right into the parlay picks, and don’t forget our Miami vs Indiana prediction for a full breakdown of the final college football game of the 2025 season.
Miami +8.5 (-112)
Under 47.5 (-115)
Malachi Toney (MIA) 60+ rec yards (-114)
Miami vs Indiana Same Game Parlay odds: +484
Miami Hurricanes +8.5 over Indiana Hoosiers (-112)
Yes, it’s hard to go against Indiana given how dominant the Hoosiers have been to this point. If this game was being played anywhere else, I would probably lay any number with the Hoosiers against any opponent, but that’s not the case here. Miami playing at home is a massive factor in this game, especially with the line being somewhat inflated given Indiana’s impressive showing in the CFP thus far. For what it’s worth, the lookahead line for this matchup was around 5.5 points.
I expect this game to be lower-scoring, so getting over a touchdown with a true home team in a national title game is very appealing to me just from a pure numbers standpoint – especially considering how dominant Miami’s defensive line has been. The Hurricanes should be able to get pressure in the face of Fernando Mendoza, and they should be able to bring him down a few times given their 3+ sacks per game. Mendoza hasn’t been invincible in that aspect, as he was sacked 3 times against both Ohio State and Alabama – both of whom have stout defensive lines in their own right, though not as good as Miami’s.
The offensive side of the ball is most concerning for Miami given Carson Beck’s sporadic turnover-prone play, but Mark Fletcher Jr.’s reliability as a runner should take some pressure off Beck. Furthermore, Indiana’s hyper-aggressive defensive approach could leave the Hoosiers vulnerable to big plays on the back end, where they are outside the top 60 in explosive pass rate allowed since Week 9. Ultimately, while Indiana has been a juggernaut, Miami won’t go down without a fight, and the ‘Canes have enough to keep it within the number.
Miami vs Indiana Under 47.5 (-115)
As I alluded to, I expect this game to be low-scoring. Both coaches should deploy a methodical approach here, especially early, where they rely on their running backs to chip away at their opposition and help put their respective offenses into third-and-manageable situations. At least, that’s been the game plan all year for these teams, as Miami and Indiana are both in the bottom 10 nationally in seconds per play with above-average rush rates. Indiana has already played 3 other teams in the bottom 10 in pace this season (Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State), and each of those games stayed under this total by a decent margin.
Red zone defense should also play a huge factor in this game staying under the total. Both Indiana and Miami are top-10 in red-zone attempts allowed, top-25 in red-zone touchdown rate allowed and top-8 in red-zone touchdowns allowed this season. In fact, Indiana and Miami have allowed just 28 combined red-zone touchdowns in 30 combined games this year, which is still less than almost half the teams in the country. Now add in the fact that this game will be played outdoors on natural grass rather than on a fast track – in a dome on turf — and you will see why the under has so much appeal.
Malachi Toney (MIA) 60+ rec yards
Malachi Toney is the X-factor for Miami in this game. We all know Fletcher will get his share of carries, but Toney will be relied upon to stretch the field and get behind the defense – which he has done frequently throughout the year. For as good as Indiana’s defense has been, the Hoosiers are most vulnerable in the secondary, specifically on passing downs. Since Week 9, the Hoosiers are outside the top 90 in passing downs PPA and 55th in passing downs success rate allowed, which should come into play frequently because their standard downs efficiency is so good, forcing opponents into frequent and obvious passing situations. This is also where the Hoosiers surrender the most big plays, as they are outside the top 100 in passing downs explosiveness allowed since the end of October. In case you were wondering, Miami’s offense is top-20 in passing downs PPA and success rate in that span, and Toney is an integral part of that.
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