Luke Lindholm
The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup Final has arrived, as Paris Saint-Germain takes on Chelsea this Sunday, July 12 at 3:00 pm ET. The tournament’s finale will kick off at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, and the winner will return to Europe with an extra $40 million in prize money. I just missed out on my PSG vs Real Madrid Same Game Parlay because Gonzalo Garcia decided it was a good time to stop shooting (even though he had a chance to take control of the Golden Boot). However, I still went 3-3 with my quarterfinal picks, so I’m now 32-14 with my FIFA CWC predictions. There are plenty of ways to bet on Sunday’s final, which is why I’ve crafted a Chelsea vs PSG Same Game Parlay for the matchup at +554 odds. Here are my picks:
Under 2.5 Total Goals (+128)
Paris Saint-Germain 3-Way Money Line (-170)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Record 3+ Shots (-300)
Chelsea vs PSG Same Game Parlay odds: +554
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PSG vs Chelsea over/under pick: Under 2.5 Total Goals (+128)
I’m starting my SGP with a pick that will make you squirm, and it’s the Under. I know Paris Saint-Germain is coming off a game where they torched Real Madrid for 4 goals, but 3 of those goals came in the first 24 minutes, and 2 of them were from embarrassing mistakes from Madrid’s CBs. PSG isn’t a team you can make mistakes against, and the Spanish side was punished. However, I can’t see Chelsea making similar mistakes in this game, especially because they’ve allowed 1 goal or less in 13 of their previous 15 matches dating back to the 2024/25 season. Enzo Maresca’s defense pitched a shutout against Fluminense in the semifinals and has allowed just 1 goal from open play in the knockout stage of this competition.
Chelsea will set up in a low block, and they should be able to learn from the mistakes Madrid made against PSG. On the flip side, I’m having a hard time picturing the Blues finding the back of the net against the Parisians. Yes, they’ve scored in every game at this tournament, but PSG’s back four is playing on a different level, AND they showed they can still defend without CB Pacho (2-game suspension for a red card against Bayern). The Ligue 1 champions have pitched a shutout in 5 of their 6 matches at the FIFA CWC and in 7 of their previous 8 games overall. That includes games against Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan. Chelsea is a great squad, but I still see them as a step below Europe’s elite, and a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline is absolutely in the cards this Sunday.
Read our full Chelsea vs PSG prediction for the 2025 Club World Cup final
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PSG vs Chelsea best bet: Paris Saint-Germain 3-Way Money Line (-170)
PSG was the best team in Europe this year, and it has been no different at the FIFA Club World Cup. If I asked you before this tournament began whether you would be more surprised to see PSG in the final or lose a game in the group stage, you likely would’ve selected the latter! However, they’ve responded from their 1-0 loss to Botafogo in impressive fashion and haven’t allowed a goal in the tournament outside that game. Atletico Madrid had the best chances of scoring against them throughout the tournament, and they managed to record just 0.89 xG in that game.
I’ve already discussed the French side’s defensive record at this year’s tournament, but their performance in front of the net is even more impressive. They’ve scored 16 goals in 6 games and have 2 goals or more in every game other than their loss to Botafogo. Additionally, they’ve scored 2+ goals in 10 of their previous 11 games dating back to last season, posting a 10-0-1 record during that stretch. Finals can be tricky because teams will often be nervous, but this will be PSG’s 3rd final since May 24. They beat Reims 3-0 in the Coupe de France and Inter Milan 5-0 in the UEFA Champions League, and I expect them to secure their 3rd title in as many months this Sunday.
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PSG vs Chelsea player props: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Record 3+ Shots (-300)
If you’ve read my FIFA Club World Cup previews throughout the tournament, I bet you’ve noticed a trend with my PSG picks: Betting on Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s shots prop. I took him to record 3+ shots against Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, and even though sportsbooks have caught on with his price being -300, I can’t ignore the Georgian’s production. Ousmane Dembélé was back in PSG’s starting XI against Madrid, but that didn’t stop Kvaratskhelia’s shot production from slowing down whatsoever, as he ended the game with 5 total shots.
The left winger has been an animal for PSG at this tournament, as he’s averaging 3.5 shots per game and has at least 3 shots in 5 of PSG’s 6 matches. The only contest he failed to record 3 shots came against the Seattle Sounders, but he played just 63 minutes and found the back of the net. I expect him to play the full 90 minutes against Chelsea, and he’s tallied at least 3 shots in 13 of the last 14 games in which he’s played at least 80 minutes. With a title on the line, expect a strong showing from Kvaratskhelia and bet him to total 3+ shots against Chelsea.
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