Best Bet – Under 9 Wins (-115)
Worst Bet – Super Bowl Winner (+1200)
The Chicago Bears weren’t expected to do much of anything last year and most believed they were still a couple of years away from really competing. Then Matt Nagy happened. The former Chiefs offensive coordinator completely overhauled the team’s offense and culture, and they ended up winning the NFC North. A missed Cody Parkey kick in the playoffs ended their run, which was disappointing because they were a legit Super Bowl contender.
After such an exciting season, expectations are sky-high for the Bears entering 2019 and anything less than a true run at the Super Bowl has to be considered a failed season.
The offense should look very similar to last year’s with Nagy controlling the squad. The defense is where the questions lie, as they’ve had a lot of turnover on that side of the ball. Longtime defensive coordinator Vic Fangio left to become the head coach of the Broncos, and Chicago brought in former Colts head coach Chuck Pagano to replace him.
Most of the players are back from the defense that gave up only 17.7 points per game last year but with Fangio gone many are questioning if they will be able to replicate the same success. The defense covered up some mistakes by Mitchell Trubisky, so if the defense is worse this year, that means it will fall on Trubisky to take his game to the next level.
People in Chicago are expecting big things out of the Bears this season and it’ll be interesting to see how they fare when they can no longer take everybody by surprise…
Bears Win Total: O/U 9 Wins
After finishing the regular season with a 12-4 record last year, Vegas is expecting the team to lose a few more games this year, setting the total at nine.
One of the reasons they may have moved down the total is because of how competitive the NFC North is going to be. The Bears have to play the Packers, Lions, and Vikings twice and each of those games is probably going to be a tough battle.
One thing overlooked from last year’s team is Trubisky and his decision making. He finished throwing for 3,223 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, but at times he still looked very much like a young quarterback who makes too many risky throws.
The Bears also have a tough non-division schedule. They have to go on the road to play the Eagles and Rams, and they have to play the Saints and Chiefs at home. Going 2-2 through those four games would be considered a win for the team, but going 2-2 in those games isn’t going to be enough to help this team get over nine wins.
I think the Bears’ defense is going to be good this year but not great, and that is going to put a lot of extra pressure on Trubisky to be better.
I think Trubisky will play fine, but I don’t think he is going to take the big next step forward that he needs to, and that is going to cause the Bears to regress.
The Bears are going to finish right around 8-8 or right on the number which would be a push. The play is for the Bears to go under the total, and I have great confidence in this play.
Odds To Make The Playoffs: Yes -140, No +110
Last season it took nine wins to get into the playoffs in the NFC which spells bad news for the Bears. If this team was in a weaker division they have the talent to be a playoff team, but they are in the NFC North and I think they’ll go 3-3 in the division.
If you take those three losses and add them to a potential 2-2 record against the toughest teams on the schedule, that gets them to five losses already and that’s the best case scenario.
It’s hard to beat anyone on the road in the NFL, and I see Trubisky struggling away from home again this year. They are going to lose a few more games that no one sees coming, just because of poor decisions from their young signal-caller.
This isn’t the thing Bears fans want to hear, but they are going to miss out on the playoffs this year.
Odds To Win The NFC North: +170
The Bears have the best odds to win the NFC North, but the Packers and Vikings aren’t too far behind them. They are still plus money which gives them decent value if you want to bet them, but I don’t see this team coming out on top in the North.
Aaron Rodgers’ squad finally has a solid defense, and Kirk Cousins has a new offensive line that should protect him a lot better. The Lions are still the Lions, but Matthew Stafford is always going to keep them in games.
This team isn’t going to be able to take any games off, and they don’t have many weeks on the schedule that can be penciled in as automatic wins.
The Bears are going to put up a good fight, but will ultimately fall short of winning the NFC North crown.
Odds To Win NFC Championship: +700
When betting the NFC Championship winner you want the team who you think will win first, and then adding a couple of good values is also a good betting strategy.
The problem with the Bears is that +700 is simply not good value for a team that’s not too likely to even make the playoffs.
The Bears offer no value here and I wouldn’t waste your money placing a bet on them to win the NFC Championship.
Odds To Win Super Bowl: +1200
Much like the NFC Championship, there isn’t much value with betting the Bears to win the Super Bowl.
Trubisky hasn’t proven he can deliver in high-pressure situations and they also have don’t have a kicker who anyone can trust.
If this team somehow does find a way to make the playoffs, I expect either Trubisky will throw an interception at a costly time, or their kicker will miss a clutch kick, much like last year.
The Bears aren’t going to win the Super Bowl this year.
