Chiefs vs Cowboys Picks, Props & Parlay: Best Bets for NFL Thanksgiving Week 13

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) in introduced prior a Week 17 NFL football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.

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Chiefs vs Cowboys predictions & NFL Thanksgiving picks

Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction: Cowboys +3.5 (-110)

The Thanksgiving Day schedule in Week 13 of the NFL season features a showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. It is an absolutely massive matchup, as both teams are teetering on the edge of wild-card contention in their respective conferences. I would not back the Cowboys without the hook, but I think they can keep this contest within a field goal. As such, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is for the home team to cover.

Dallas kept itself alive in the NFC playoff picture with a monumental 24-21 victory over Philadelphia from 21-0 down this past Sunday at AT&T Stadium. The defense has looked much improved (granted, that’s not saying a lot) following the trade-deadline acquisitions of DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson, while QB Dak Prescott and WR George Pickens are simply on fire these days. Pickens has caught 18 of 20 targets for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past 2 games.

Kansas City kept its AFC wild-card hopes afloat with a 23-20 home win over Indianapolis in Week 12. It was an impressive result, but the Chiefs were behind 20-9 in the fourth quarter and just 1 or 2 plays by Daniel Jones here and there could have iced it in the Colts’ favor. These still aren’t the Chiefs of old. They are 6-5 overall and had lost 2 straight prior to their defeat of Indy. They are 1-4 away from home this season (1-3 in true road games). Patrick Mahomes delivering more late heroics to steal a win would not come as much of a surprise, but I don’t see the visitors covering -3.5.

Chiefs vs Cowboys best bet: Under 51.5 (-110)

This is currently the highest total of the week, tied with a game involving the Bengals — which is always going to be a monster number regardless of who they are playing. In the case of this game, I think it’s a number slightly too large. As a result, my Chiefs vs Cowboys pick is under 51.5. This Kansas City offense simply is not the same as it was in recent seasons. Travis Kelce’s production is declining and the running game is borderline nonexistent. Now the Chiefs are facing a Cowboys defense that has progressed from horrendous to perhaps at least somewhat respectable. The Eagles did not score a single point over the final 41 minutes this past weekend.

Fortunately for head coach Andy Reid’s side, the defense has been solid. Kansas City ranks #8 league wide against the run (97.6 yards per game allowed) and #11 against the pass (195.4 yards). It is also #4 in scoring, allowing a mere 18.3 points per contest. Jacksonville (31 points) is the only Chiefs opponent that has reached the 30-point mark this entire year, and that was only because the Jags returned an interception 99 yards for a touchdown. There will be some offense on Thursday — but probably not to the extent that a 51.5 number suggests.

Find out all of our expert Chiefs vs Cowboys picks for today’s Thanksgiving Day matchup

Chiefs vs Cowboys player prop bets

Best Chiefs vs Cowboys player prop bet: Rashee Rice (KC) over 6.5 receptions (-118)

Nobody has been more thrilled with the return of Rashee Rice than Patrick Mahomes. He’s targeting Rice at a 26% clip in the five games the duo has played together this season – 12th highest since Week 7. Yet, Rice’s ADOT is 4.9 yards – The lowest of any Chiefs receiver. With that, we’re targeting Rice’s receptions prop of 6.5 on DraftKings at odds of -110.

Chiefs-Cowboys is in line to be a shootout between two of the most talented offenses in the league. The total is set at 52 points, the most of any game on the Week 13 slate. Even with the return of Isiah Pacheco out of the backfield and the Chiefs playing from ahead as road favorites, Mahomes and the Chiefs are no strangers to passing in positive game scripts. The run game has been abysmal all year, with Mahomes not far behind in rushing yards to Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. So, look for Mahomes to go to his go-to target against a Cowboys team playing zone at the 3rd highest rate.

See our best Chiefs vs Cowboys player prop bets for today

Chiefs vs Cowboys TD scorer best bet: Kareem Hunt (KC) anytime touchdown scorer (+135)

Regardless of how the Chiefs offense approaches this contest, they’ll need to have some success on the ground to win this game. On that front, it’s hard to ignore the value we’re getting with Kareem Hunt to find the end zone at the current odds. After all, Hunt has been in especially good form in recent weeks, racking up over 250 rushing yards over the last 4 games, while also finding the end zone in each of those contests. While the Cowboys’ rush defense has improved in recent weeks, Hunt should get plenty of touches out of the backfield near the goal line. In a game that projects to be pretty high-scoring, let’s back the Chiefs’ top running back to find paydirt on the road at plus-money odds.

Chiefs vs Cowboys TD scorer prediction: Jake Ferguson (DAL) anytime touchdown scorer (+215)

On the Dallas side of things, the Cowboys’ offense has been rolling of late, and with much of the Chiefs’ focus expected to be on CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens this week, there should be plenty of opportunities for Jake Ferguson to make an impact. The tight end has been a reliable security blanket for Dak Prescott all season long, particularly in the red zone, where Ferguson has recorded 7 touchdowns in 10 games this season.

The Chiefs defense is not a pushover by any means, but Steve Spagnuolo’s unit has been pretty vulnerable against tight ends in recent weeks, and that should continue in this matchup against a passing attack that makes heavy use of Ferguson on key downs. Therefore, let’s roll with the veteran tight end to find the end zone once again on Thanksgiving.

After a +525 winner on TNF last week, get our full analysis for our Chiefs vs Cowboys touchdown scorer best bets for Thanksgiving

Kansas City Chiefs vs Dallas Cowboys Same Game Parlay

After cashing SGPs at +753, +750 and +450 odds recently, don’t miss our Chiefs vs Cowboys SGP at +650 odds below

Cowboys +3.5 (-110)

The Cowboys kept themselves alive in the NFC playoff picture this past weekend with a momentous 24-21 upset of Philadelphia from 21-0 down. As usual, the offense is humming. Now the defense is much improved thanks to trade-deadline acquisitions of tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Logan Wilson.

As for the Chiefs, they are still afloat in the AFC wild-card race thanks to a 23-20 win over Indianapolis last Sunday at Arrowhead. It was an impressive and much-needed result, but Kansas City trailed 20-9 in the fourth quarter and Colts QB Daniel Jones had every opportunity to slam the door. This is still a good team, but it isn’t the K.C. of old. It is 1-4 away from home in 2025 (1-3 in true road games). Moreover, the impact of offensive lineman Trey Smith’s absence should not be underestimated.

George Pickens (DAL) to score a touchdown (+145)

Pickens is absolutely balling in his first season with the Cowboys, especially in recent weeks. Over the past 2 games he has caught 18 of 20 targets for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Georgia product has now found the endzone 8 times in 2025 to go along with 1,054 yards. Kansas City’s defense is good, but starting nickel back Chris Rowland-Wallace being out does not help. The bottom line is that right now it hardly matters who is defending Pickens.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) Over 268.5 passing yards (-111)

Mahomes has been cooking and the Cowboys’ pass defense is terrible, so this is a great spot for the superstar quarterback to put up some significant numbers. He has exceeded this 268.5 number in 4 of the last 5 games, including a 352-yard performance against Indianapolis. That was preceded by a 276-yard effort against an awesome Denver defense. Mahomes now faces a Dallas defense that is giving up the third-most passing yards per game and also the third-most yards per passing attempt.