Ricky Dimon
The second Monday Night Football double-header of the young NFL season is upon us. Week 4 wraps up with the Jets visiting Miami before Denver hosts Cincinnati. The latter is a crucial contest in the AFC. Although Joe Burrow is out for 3 months, the Bengals’ 2025 campaign is still very much alive with a 2-1 record. The Broncos are 1-2, but they also have realistic playoff aspirations.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out our full Bengals vs Broncos predictions.
Under 40.5 alternate game total (+144)
Jake Browning to throw 1+ touchdown passes (-310)
Bo Nix to throw 1+ touchdown passes (-670)
Parlay odds: +418
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the entire plan here, as quarterbacks Jake Browning and Bo Nix tossing touchdown strikes obviously don’t work well with the under. Still, just 1 TD pass isn’t exactly a lot. This game can still be low scoring even if those 2 props cash.
Under 40.5 alternate game total (+144)
I’m not high on either team, so I’m staying away from the point spread. The game total, however, looks like a much more enticing proposition. Browning has looked decent in the past while filling in for the oft-injured Burrow, but he was horrendous during last week’s blowout loss at Minnesota in which Cincinnati scored only 10 points. The Washington product completed just 19 of 27 passes for 140 yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. He was also inconsistent at best after Burrow left the Bengals’ Week 2 game. They managed to beat the Jaguars, but Browning threw 3 INTs to go along with his 241 yards and 2 TDs. As for Denver, it has not yet produced a 100-yard rusher in any game and Bo Nix has underwhelmed so far in year 2 (535 yards 5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions through 3 outings). On the other side of the ball, the Broncos boast one of the best defenses in the league and the Bengals’ much-maligned defense has exceeded expectations so far. That unit played well through 2 weeks and the Vikings’ onslaught last weekend had a lot to do with the offense putting the defense in terrible spots. I wouldn’t be surprised if this Monday Night Football game is an ugly one.
Jake Browning to throw 1+ touchdown passes (-310)
We can pretty much take it as a given that Browning and Nix will each throw at least 1 TD pass. If we can avoid touchdowns on the ground and obviously a defensive or special teams score, the under can still hit. Browning has passed for 3 TDs in 2 appearances so far this season. Last year he threw at least 1 in all 8 of his games (not including garbage time in a lopsided loss to Cleveland).
Bo Nix to throw 1+ touchdown passes (-670)
While Browing has never failed to throw a TD pass in any NFL start, Nix has tossed 1 or more in 16 of his last 18 starts and in 11 straight heading into Monday. The former Oregon standout faced the Bengals once last year and torched them with 3 scoring strikes. Nix also threw 3 against Indianapolis in Week 2 of the 2025 campaign.
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