Friday’s college football slate offers a fun hybrid of bowl games and the start of the College Football Playoff. The action begins at 11:00 am ET between a couple of conference champions in the Kennesaw State Owls and the Western Michigan Broncos in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. At 2:30 pm ET, the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl kicks off between the Memphis Tigers and NC State Wolfpack, functioning as the final appetizer before Friday night’s CFP matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Oklahoma Sooners from Norman. That game starts at 8:00 pm ET on ABC.
Ahead of Friday’s college football card, I picked out my favorite bet and player prop on the slate and will break each down for you here. Let’s get into now, but don’t forget to find the rest of our college football picks and tips in our NCAAF predictions.
CFB Best Bet: Western Michigan Broncos -3 over Kennesaw State Owls (-108)
Odd courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -4.
Both of these teams are expected to be at or near full strength in terms of injuries and opt-outs, which is always great to see in the transfer portal era. Given that, I like Western Michigan here, especially at a flat -3. In a matchup between a couple of top-40 offenses in terms of rushing frequency, the handicap centers around how each team will effectively move the ball on the ground while simultaneously limiting its opponent from doing just that. Considering that, the edge lies with the Broncos. The Owls are worse defensively against the run, surrendering at least 191 rushing yards in 4 straight games. That includes a 291-yard performance by the 4-8 Liberty Flames. Meanwhile, surpassing the 200-yard mark is nothing new for WMU, the Broncos have done it multiple times – including when they ran for 286 yards in the MAC Championship.
It’s also important to consider turnovers in a matchup between run-heavy offenses, as the clock is often moving in these matchups. More running clock means less time for possessions, so ball security is crucial. The Broncos average fewer than 1 giveaway per game, all thanks to QB Broc Lowry. He’s not a game-breaker, but rather a great-game manager – at least as a passer. Lowry has thrown just 2 interceptions this year on an even more impressive 2 turnover-worthy plays. That’s exactly how WMU keeps its drives alive. Compare that to KSU QB Amari Odom, who puts the ball into harm’s way at a dramatic rate compared to Lowry. In fact, Odom has 13 turnover-worthy plays, and 9 of them were away from home. This may be Kennesaw State’s first bowl game, but the Broncos haven’t won a bowl game since 2021, so I don’t see any motivational edge in that aspect. Give me the better rushing attack led by the quarterback less likely to make mistakes.
Read our Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan prediction
CFB Player Prop Best Bet: Ty Simpson (ALA) 240+ passing yards (-115)
Odd available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 249.5.
Alabama definitely hasn’t passed the eye test in recent weeks, and while the Tide opened as a favorite in what will be a road revenge game against the Sooners on Friday night, the market wasn’t having it – as Oklahoma is now a short favorite. It makes sense, the Sooners beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa earlier this season, which was the start of a few weird performances in a row against SEC opponents for Alabama. I lean to the Crimson Tide here, mostly due to an expected regression of turnover luck back to the mean, as they were -3 in that department against Oklahoma a month ago. However, I really like the over on Ty Simpson’s passing prop line. He threw for more than 300 yards against this defense once already this year, and it seems a few performances in a row with fewer than 220 yards is suppressing this number a bit.
Don’t get me wrong, Oklahoma’s defense is very good, but its Achilles heel seems to be in the secondary. The Sooners are worse against the pass than the rush, and they are particularly inefficient in obvious passing situations – sitting 107th in passing downs PPA allowed since Week 9. Considering Alabama is not particularly good on the ground, the Tide are going to need a big day from Simpson through the air in order to have a chance to win and advance, and he should be able to do just that yet again. After all, he surpassed this number in 7 of 9 games ahead of the first meeting with Oklahoma. Not to mention, it looks like C Parker Brailsford and TE Josh Cuevas are expected to suit up on Friday, which only helps Alabama’s passing game.
For picks on side and total of this College Football Playoff matchup, find our Alabama vs Oklahoma prediction
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