After an exciting Hawai’i Bowl on Christmas Eve, there was no college football action on Christmas Day. However, bowl season returns on Friday with a 3-game slate. The action starts with the GameAbove Sports Bowl between Central Michigan Michigan and Northwestern at 1:00 pm ET, which will be followed by the Rate Bowl between New Mexico and Minnesota at 4:30 pm ET. The primetime matchup pits FIU and UTSA in the First Responder Bowl at 8:30 pm ET, and all action will be televised on ESPN.
To get you set for the bowl action, here is my best bet for Friday’s college football slate, and make sure you check out our NCAA predictions for tips and picks on every postseason game.
CFB Best Bet: New Mexico Lobos ML over Minnesota Golden Gophers (+102)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -110.
PJ Fleck’s perfect 6-0 bowl record as Minnesota’s coach is a nice resume booster, but does it actually matter much when it comes to Friday’s against New Mexico? Probably not. Sure, the experience helps, especially when going up against a first-year FBS head coach like New Mexico’s Jason Eck, but there’s a real argument that it means nothing for the 2025 Rate Bowl.
A 7-5 SU mark in the Big Ten is nothing to scoff at, but Minnesota’s record was probably better than its actual play. The Golden Gophers were uncompetitive against the top teams in the conference, and they barely survived against the bottom-feeders. They gave up 38 points to Northwestern – its season-high against power conference teams by decent margin – in a 3-point loss and were outgained in each of their 1-score wins over 5-7 Rutgers, 2-10 Purdue and 4-8 Michigan State. The Gophers even needed a 10-0 4th quarter performance to secure a win over Buffalo in Week 1. Statistically, Minnesota finished the regular season 95th in PPA per play and 102nd in success rate offensively, matched with a defense that ranked 96th and 116th in those metrics, respectively. Since Week 9, the Gophers are 131st in PPA per play allowed, as well as 123rd or worse on standard and passing downs.
New Mexico comes into this game with all the momentum and a perceived edge in motivation given its bowl drought. The Lobos have won 6 straight games to finish 9-3, which was plenty good enough to earn their first bowl appearance since 2016. New Mexico stepped up in class admirably this year, covering with ease in Ann Arbor against Michigan in Week 1 and defeating UCLA in Week 3 35-10. Look for another great effort against a Big Ten foe on Friday. The Lobos should be able to move the ball on the ground with its sound stable of running backs while limiting New Mexico’s ground game with a run defense that ranks top-30 in PPA per rush and top-45 in rush success rate allowed since the end of October.
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