Tuesday provides a 3-pack of bowl games, starting at 2:00 pm ET with the Independence Bowl between Coastal Carolina and Louisiana Tech. Following that game, the Music City Bowl kicks off at 5:30 pm ET between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Illinois Fighting Illini from the home of the Titans in Nashville, while the Alamo Bowl between USC and TCU headlines Tuesday’s college football card at 9:00 pm ET. All 3 games will be televised on ESPN.
Ahead of Tuesday’s bowl action, I will get you set with my favorite bet of the day. Let’s get into the breakdown before you find our NCAAF predictions for the rest of our college football postseason analysis.
CFB Best Bet: Illinois Fighting Illini +3.5 over Tennessee Volunteers (-112)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.
The Volunteers will certainly benefit from somewhat of a home-field advantage in the Music City Bowl on Tuesday, but I’m not sure it will be enough to win by margin over the Illini. Tennessee is battling multiple defensive injuries and opt-outs, as well as a change in its defensive coordinator. With a potentially depleted secondary from a defense that finished the season 117th in passing yards allowed per game, Illinois QB Luke Altmyer should be able to methodically move the ball down the field through the air. For what it’s worth, Altmyer’s passing attack is definitely the more efficient element of the Illini offense, as the Illini finished top-20 in both PPA per pass and passing success rate outside of garbage time this season. In comparison, Tennessee finished outside the top 60 in both of those metrics defensively.
Tennessee’s offense should still be able to score in this game, but the ceiling might be limited with WR Chris Brazzell II opting out. Illinois’ defense has been leaky at various points throughout the season, but the secondary has been able to generate havoc at the 2nd-highest rate nationally since Week 9. If that continues in Nashville on Tuesday, the Illini might be able to steal a possession or two from the Vols.
Tennessee was not profitable against the spread this season, finishing just 4-7-1 against the number – including 4-6 ATS in the favorite role. As a favorite of -10 or less, the Vols were just 2-4 ATS. Meanwhile, Illinois finished the season on the opposite end of the spectrum at 7-4-1 ATS. The Illini left a bit to be desired in the underdog role at 1-3 ATS, but those 3 ATS losses were against Indiana and Ohio State – arguably the 2 best teams in the country – and out west in Washington in one of those cross-country, Big-Ten travel spots in which very few teams find success. I’ll take the points with Illinois.
Find our full Music City Bowl prediction, including picks on side and total
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