College Football Championship Week Predictions: NCAAF Best Bets for Friday, December 5

The college football conference championships are here, and the action gets underway on Friday night with a 4-pack of games. The Conference USA Championship between Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State kicks off at 7:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network, while the Sun Belt Championship between Troy and James Madison will begin simultaneously on ESPN. An hour later, the American Athletic Conference Championship between North Texas and Tulane will start on ABC, right at the same time as the Mountain West Championship between UNLV and Boise State on Fox. 

Ahead of Friday’s championship slate, it’s time to get into my best bets of the night, but be sure to check out the rest of our NCAAF predictions for the entire postseason.

CFB Best Bet: Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5 over Kennesaw State Owls (-108)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -110 on the ML.

Over the last month or two, I’ve highlighted how Jacksonville State has one of the better home field advantages in the Group of Five. That’s not to say the Gamecocks play in front of sellout crowds every game, but rather they perform more consistently at home compared to their road games in lieu of being relatively new to the FBS landscape. It’s much of the same this year, as Jax State has yet to lose at home. Their lone home loss last year – their first year at the FBS level — came in Week 1 against Coastal Carolina, and their lone home loss in 2023 – as an FCS team – was to the undefeated, C-USA champs in the Liberty Flames. Why am I highlighting this for a conference championship game? Well, like all of the title games on Friday, this game will be played on the home field of the higher seed – Jax State.

These teams met in the same stadium just a few weeks ago and once halftime rolled around, the Gamecocks were in the driver’s seat. The Owls outgained them, but Kennesaw QB Amari Odom wasn’t at his best to put it lightly. In fact, he threw 3 picks and was removed from the game in the fourth quarter, just for his backup to also throw a pick.

Kennesaw State is unlikely to turn the ball over 4 times again on Friday, and oddsmakers seem to think the Owls will bounce back in their revenge game here. However, I don’t see it that way. For my money, Jax State has the best player on the field in RB Cam Cook, who torched the Owls for 132 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries.  Kennesaw State has struggled on the ground all year defensively, so I have a difficult time seeing a sudden change in character just a few short weeks after its first trip to Jacksonville, Alabama. 

As was highlighted in the first meeting between these teams, Jax State has a significant advantage when it comes to turnover margin, sitting 17th nationally compared to 66th for Kennesaw State. The Gamecocks have an even bigger edge in the penalty department, as they are 47th in penalties per game while the Owls are 114th. Playing at home with a chance to repeat as conference champs – despite a new coach leading the way – will enhance these advantages. Look for Cook and the Gamecocks to run wild in what I expect to be a win on Friday night, though I’m certainly not going to balk at taking the points for some cushion.

CFB Best Bet: North Texas Mean Green -2.5 over Tulane Green Wave (-112)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -3.5. 

I’ve discussed this play in depth in both my early-week preview and AAC Championship Same Game Parlay article, so at the risk of being redundant, I won’t dive too deep down the rabbit hole again. The handicap comes down to siding with what I perceive to be the more reliable offense. The Mean Green are atop the country in multiple efficiency and scoring metrics both on the season as a whole and over the last 5 weeks, and they benefit from a massive red-zone scoring edge in this game being that they are 1st nationally in red-zone attempts and touchdowns this year – crossing the goal line on 80% of red-zone trips. Compare that to Tulane, who converts only 56% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns (101st). 

I also give North Texas the quarterback edge here, although that’s not really saying much. Drew Mestemaker leads the country in passing yards and is second behind Ohio State’s Julian Sayin in PFF passing grade, throwing more touchdowns and less interceptions than Sayin on fewer attempts. The UNT signal caller has 24 big-time throws to just 10 turnover-worthy plays, which dwarfs Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff’s 12 and 17, respectively. In fact, Retzlaff has 14 turnover-worth plays since Week 5 alone. I’m on the Mean Green here.