After Miami and Ohio State open the quarterfinal round on New Year’s Eve, the College Football Playoff continues Thursday with a 3-pack of highly-anticipated matchups. Leading the day at noon ET will be the Oregon Ducks and the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl, followed by the Rose Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Indiana Hoosiers at 4:00 pm ET. The Sugar Bowl will be the headline contest, pitting familiar SEC foes in the Ole Miss Rebels and the Georgia Bulldogs at 8:00 pm ET. All games will be aired on ESPN.
Ahead of the New Year’s Day CFP action, here are my two favorite bets of the day. Let’s get into the analysis, but don’t forget to check out all of our NCAAF predictions for the remaining postseason matchups.
CFB Best Bet: Oregon Ducks 1H ML over Texas Tech Red Raiders (-125)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -150.
This game has all the makings of being the game of the day, and while Oregon is at a slight disadvantage playing early on the east coast, I like Dan Lanning’s Ducks to take the lead into halftime on Thursday. Don’t get me wrong, Texas Tech’s body of work has been impressive and its defense is certainly stout, but that production came against a strength of schedule that ranks 54th by ESPN and 65th by Sagarin. Oregon ran through a top-15 strength of schedule per both ESPN and Sagarin with just 1 loss – to the #1 team in the country.
On paper, Texas Tech profiles as a team that is extremely appealing to bettors when catching points. However, there’s something to the argument that the Red Raiders haven’t seen an offense as dynamic as Oregon’s, especially in the passing game. Oregon QB Dante Moore is the 2nd-best quarterback in the country per PFF’s passing grade, while sitting top-4 in big-time throws and NFL passer rating. Moreover, Texas Tech’s defensive front, while extremely productive, has not matched up against an offensive line as good as Oregon’s. The Ducks lead the country in PFF pass blocking, sit top-15 in both sacks and tackles for loss allowed, and rank top-20 in both run blocking and line yards. Assuming Oregon can buy Moore some time in the pocket, he should be able to rip off a couple chunk plays in the first half while Texas Tech adjusts to the moment.
Speaking of which, the Red Raiders have been idle for weeks, which likely just amplifies the nerves of the moment and adds a rust factor to the equation. In contrast, Oregon not only has been in the CFP quarterfinals before, but the Ducks played in the first round just a week and a half ago. If you remember, not a single team with a first-round bye won in the quarterfinals last year, and none of them led at halftime, either. Look for Lanning to use James Madison’s second-half surge and last year’s quarterfinal disappointment as fuel for preparation ahead of the Oregon Bowl, and for the Ducks to take a lead into the intermission.
Find our Oregon vs Texas Tech prediction for full-game picks on side and total
CFB Best Bet: Ole Miss Rebels 1Q +3.5 over Georgia Bulldogs (-135)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +1.5.
I’m not sure how long this line will last at this number and price, but while it’s here, I’m in. Georgia’s slow starts are well-documented at this point, at least against power-conference opponents. The ‘Dawgs have trailed after the first quarter in 7 of 10 power conference games this season, and they average just 4 points per first quarter when playing away from home – which is noteworthy considering the Bulldogs haven’t played outside of Athens or Atlanta since early November.
On paper, Georgia’s defense has improved down the stretch – specifically in the secondary – but Texas and Alabama struggled with passing consistency at times, Georgia Tech needs its run game to set up its passing game, and Charlotte is Charlotte. Ole Miss has been consistently efficient in its passing attack all season long with Trindad Chambliss leading the way, and now he’s playing against a unit he’s seen already this year – one that finished the regular season outside the top 60 in both PPA per pass and passing success rate allowed. In comparison, Ole Miss finished the regular season top-12 in PPA per pass and passing success rate. I acknowledge Georgia coach Kirby Smart is the master of adjustments, but those tend to be more in-game.
The Bulldogs – while familiar with this spot after last year’s CFP loss to Notre Dame – have been sitting idle for nearly a month, while Ole Miss got a game under its belt the weekend before last. As previously mentioned, that spot has proven to be more advantageous for the team that played a playoff game already – albeit in a small 12-team-playoff sample size. When adding in the fact that Ole Miss is playing in a rare same-season revenge angle, I find it hard to pass on this number. Look for the Rebels to at least keep it within a field goal early on.
Our Ole Miss vs Georgia prediction includes picks on the spread and total
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