Sam Avellone
We are merely days away from the official start of the 2025 college football season, which means we have just enough time for another preseason futures article. At this point, we’ve discussed all of our best bets not only to win the National Championship, but each individual conference – including the Group of 5. We’ve also shared our favorite lookahead lines and win totals to bet right now before the action kicks off. However, we’ve yet to discuss our favorite bets to make the playoff, so we’re going to dive into that topic today.
That being said, here are my favorite picks to make the College Football Playoff in January.
2025-2026 College Football Playoff Best Bets
Alabama Crimson Tide to Make the Playoff (-152)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
If you read my SEC preview, then you know where I stand on the Crimson Tide. This Alabama roster is loaded with talent and should be squarely in the playoff race all season. Sure, there are some questions at quarterback, but I have faith that Ty Simpson will showcase why he was a 5-star recruit back in 2022 – especially with new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb at his side. Simpson’s athleticism is underrated, as is his accuracy as a passer, and he will benefit from throwing to one of the best wide receiver rooms in the nation while playing behind one of the best offensive lines. Jam Miller’s upper body injury is a slight concern, but there’s a couple young and talented pieces in the backfield behind him in Richard Young and Daniel Hill, and Miller is expected to be back in action sooner rather than later.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Tide have multiple future NFL Draft picks, headlined by LT Overton, Tim Keenan III, Deontae Lawson, and Bray Hubbard. I project them to be one of the best defenses in the SEC given their ample amount of high-level returning production in defensive coordinator Kane Wommack’s second season in Tuscaloosa. In fact, Alabama is top 15 nationally in defensive returning production, bringing back nearly 70% of its group after finishing 10th in scoring and 21st in total defense.
A vast majority of Alabama’s power conference opponents will have a new quarterback this season, including Georgia, who the Tide play in Week 5 in Athens. Georgia typically doesn’t lose at home, but the Tide have the talent to win anywhere in the country, so anticipate me taking the points with ‘Bama in that one. Outside of their travel to Georgia, the Tide’s road trips to South Carolina and Auburn could be tricky. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose 1 of those games, but I also don’t see the Tide losing more than 1 home game. Alabama will be in a revenge spot when it hosts Vanderbilt after last season’s miraculous Commodore upset, and I have very little faith in Tennessee’s offense with Joey Aguilar at the helm. That leaves LSU and Oklahoma late in the season, the former of which will be played after a bye, while the latter is yet another revenge spot – as the Sooners are the reason the Tide missed the CFP last year. Behind a coach that has been to the title game with a program that has a fraction of the football resources of Alabama, the Tide have championship upside. We’ve already beat the market on their national title odds, so I’m going to double down with the Tide to make the College Football Playoff at a good price. This number on FanDuel is a value compared to other sportsbooks, so let’s lock it in right now.
USC Trojans to Make the Playoff (+450)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of moving pieces on this roster. The offensive line has to replace as many as 3 starters, running back Woody Marks is off to the NFL, and there’s only 49% returning production on USC’s defense. However, there’s reason to be excited about the Trojans this year, as Lincoln Riley typically gets the most out of his quarterbacks. With a full offseason as the starter after gaining some playing experience last year, I’m expecting Jayden Maiava to successfully run the offense and improve on his 8 turnover-worthy plays in 5 games. It certainly won’t hurt to have one of the best wide receiver duos in the Big Ten in Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon at his disposal.
Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn will have his work cut out for him this season, as the Trojans will replace 7 of their top 10 tacklers from a season ago. However, last year’s stop-unit wasn’t much better than average. USC was outside the top 50 in scoring and outside the top 75 in total defense, yet it was a massive improvement from the year prior – when USC was near the bottom of the country in most major defensive stat categories. Given Lynn’s track record as a defensive specialist, in addition to the return of key pass-rushers in all 3 phases like Eric Gentry, Kamari Ramsey, Braylen Shelby, and Kameryn Fountain, I wouldn’t be surprised to see USC jump into the top 50 in both scoring and total defense – even with all of the new pieces surrounding the key returners.
USC’s schedule sets up very nicely for a postseason run, especially because it does not include Ohio State or Penn State, nor does USC have to leave the west coast in the final month of the season. The Trojans get 4 tune-up games to start the year before a road trip to Illinois to play the Illini, who will be coming off a road game at rival Indiana. I consider that to be a very winnable game for USC. The Trojans will then benefit from a bye week before 2 of their more challenging games of the season: a home game against Michigan and a road trip back east to Notre Dame. Fortunately for USC, the Wolverines do not share a bye week prior to their meeting. Moreover, Notre Dame’s schedule leading into its game against USC is far more difficult than what the Trojans will experience prior to that October 18th meeting. If USC can escape the games against Illinois, Michigan, and Notre Dame with just 1 loss, that should leave them with a mulligan to use either at Nebraska or at Oregon. Obviously, this is a big “if” with so much production lost from last year, but the odds appropriately reflect that. If the Trojans play closer to their ceiling this year without giving away multiple 4th quarter leads again, they should be squarely in the mix for a Big Ten Championship appearance and a trip to the College Football Playoff.
Find out ALL of our CFB futures picks in ONE PLACE with our handy betting guide
Toledo Rockets to Make the Playoff (+2500)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
I wanted to throw a Group of 5 longshot in here, but I didn’t want to settle for one of the favorites like Boise State, James Madison, or even Liberty. Despite Jason Candle’s propensity to lose games he should win, I believe the Rockets are positioned to chase an undefeated season this year, especially if they are able to upset Kentucky in Week 1. A win over an SEC program would be an incredible resume boost for Toledo, more so than anything Liberty could offer – as the Flames don’t play any power conference teams. Toledo brings back nearly 75% of its offensive production from last year, including its quarterback in Tucker Gleason, 3 offensive line starters, and its 2nd leading receiver in Junior Vandeross III. The running back room should be very strong with leading rusher Connor Walendzak back, supplemented by Kentucky transfer Chip Traynum and NC A&T transfer Kenji Christian. Defensively, Toledo lost 3 of its 5 top tacklers, but I expect the secondary to be strong with multiple top-20 coverage players back, and defensive lineman Anthony Dunn Jr. will likely be one of the best pass-rushers in the MAC.
Toledo will absolutely have to win the MAC to make the CFP. If you read my MAC preview, you know I like them to do just that, as they avoid Ohio and Buffalo during the regular season – 2 of the 3 top teams on the MAC oddsboard. Toledo’s most difficult conference game projects to be a road trip to Miami (OH), but the Rockets have a decent situational advantage in that game being that the Redhawks have that matchup sandwiched in between games against Ohio and Buffalo. I really like Toledo’s chances of making it through the MAC without a loss, so it all comes down to the non-conference games against Kentucky, Western Kentucky, and Washington State. All those games are winnable. Toledo is currently only a 7.5-point underdog at Kentucky in Week 1, which is a short line if you compare it to SEC-MAC showdowns in previous years. Toledo should be a favorite when hosting the Hilltoppers in Week 2, a team replacing nearly all of its production from last year, and the Rockets will benefit from drawing Washington State after the Cougars will have played back-to-back road games out east against Ole Miss and Virginia. If you like the Rockets this year, but betting them +220 to win the MAC doesn’t appeal to you from an ROI perspective, then this may be the move to make.
