Week 9 of the college football season did not disappoint. Alabama and Texas were on the ropes on the road, BYU remained undefeated, LSU lost at home under the lights and hence will no longer be coached by Brian Kelly. The list goes on, but that’s just a normal week in this sport and why we love it so much. What we don’t love is losing our early-week best bet. Despite a decent chunk of closing-line value, we failed to get to the window on our Arkansas +1.5. The Hogs closed as a 2.5-point favorite.
There’s no reason to hang our heads, though. We’re 5-3 on this bet series this year, and I’m liking the perceived value on the board for Week 10 as of Monday afternoon. Let’s dig into the lines and odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for the upcoming CFB slate and find ourselves a 6th winner.
CFB Week 10 early lines and odds
- James Madison -6.5 (-112) @ Texas State – Tuesday, October 28
- Jacksonville State -6 (-112) @ Middle Tennessee – Wednesday, October 29
- Tulane -4 (-110) @ UTSA – Thursday, October 30
- Memphis -14 (-112) @ Rice – Friday, October 31
- Syracuse -2.5 (-105) vs North Carolina – Friday, October 31
- Texas -2.5 (-110) vs Vanderbilt – Saturday, November 1
- Ohio State -20.5 (-115) vs Penn State – Saturday, November 1
- Miami -11.5 (-105) @ SMU – Saturday, November 1
- Clemson -3.5 (-108) vs Duke – Saturday, November 1
- Illinois -12.5 (-108) vs Rutgers – Saturday, November 1
- North Texas -5.5 (-112) vs Navy – Saturday, November 1
- UConn -11.5 (-110) vs UAB – Saturday, November 1
- Iowa State -5.5 (-112) vs Arizona State – Saturday, November 1
- Army -1.5 (-102) @ Air Force – Saturday, November 1
- Baylor -4.5 (-112) vs UCF – Saturday, November 1
- East Carolina -4.5 (-110) @ Temple – Saturday, November 1
- Louisville -10 (-112) @ Virginia Tech – Saturday, November 1
- UNLV -5.5 (-108) vs New Mexico – Saturday, November 1
- Georgia -7.5 (-105) vs Florida – Saturday, November 1
- Indiana -21.5 (-108) @ Maryland – Saturday, November 1
- Texas Tech -7.5 (-108) @ Kansas State – Saturday, November 1
- Notre Dame -29.5 (-108) @ Boston College – Saturday, November 1
- Pitt -14 (-108) @ Stanford – Saturday, November 1
- Boise State -17.5 (-115) vs Fresno State – Saturday, November 1
- Minnesota -3.5 (-105) vs Michigan State – Saturday, November 1
- Liberty -3.5 (-105) vs Delaware – Saturday, November 1
- Western Kentucky -9.5 (-108) vs New Mexico State – Saturday, November 1
- South Alabama -4 (-108) vs Louisiana – Saturday, November 1
- Virginia -4.5 (-108) @ California – Saturday, November 1
- Arkansas -4.5 (-108) vs Mississippi State – Saturday, November 1
- Ole Miss -12.5 (-112) vs South Carolina – Saturday, November 1
- Michigan -21 (-115) vs Purdue – Saturday, November 1
- San Diego State -11.5 (-105) vs Wyoming – Saturday, November 1
- Georgia Tech -6.5 (-110) @ NC State – Saturday, November 1
- Tennessee -3.5 (-105) vs Oklahoma – Saturday, November 1
- USC -7 (-108) @ Nebraska – Saturday, November 1
- Florida State -7.5 (-115) vs Wake Forest – Saturday, November 1
- Auburn -10 (-112) vs Kentucky – Saturday, November 1
- Troy -7 (-115) vs Arkansas State – Saturday, November 1
- Utah -7.5 (-105) vs Cincinnati – Saturday, November 1
Week 10 CFB early best bet: Georgia Bulldogs -7.5 vs Florida Gators (-105)
The Gators have had an extra week to adjust to life after Billy Napier, as Florida parted ways with its head coach following a narrow victory over Mississippi State prior to the bye week. Taking over for Napier on an interim basis is WR coach Billy Gonzales, who has never held a head-coaching role at the college level. In fact, Gonzales hasn’t even been a sole offensive coordinator – only co-OC. Don’t get me wrong, he’s had great success coaching wide receivers up to eventually be drafted into the NFL, but there’s a vast difference between leading the WR group and leading the entire team against Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs.
Smart is one of the best coaches in the country, and he’s had great success following bye weeks against everyone except Alabama. In this particular matchup, Georgia has a massive coaching edge and should be able to parlay that into a win and cover in tandem with the on-field advantages the ‘Dawgs have over the Gators. After all, Smart has had his way with the Florida program since the start of his tenure, winning 7 of 9 matchups against the Gators – 6 of them by double digits.
Florida plays sloppy football, sitting 88th in penalties per game and 117th in turnover margin per game against FBS opponents. Georgia doesn’t generate a ton of havoc, but the Bulldogs will certainly capitalize on Florida’s mistakes – of which there are typically many given QB DJ Lagway’s SEC-leading 9 interceptions and 2nd-most turnover-worthy plays (14). Potentially giving Georgia multiple extra opportunities is a dangerous game to play considering the Bulldogs are 12th in points per scoring opportunity and 26th PPA per play since Week 5. Not to mention, they are 24th in standard downs PPA and 26th in PPA per rush over the last 5 weeks, in addition to 13th in third-down conversion rate over their last 3 games.
Meanwhile, Florida’s defense is outside the top 120 on standard downs and outside the top 90 in PPA per rush allowed. This is just a very football-nerdy way of saying it’s setting up to be a long day for Florida’s defense if it can’t stop the run. On the other side of the field, Georgia’s defense has looked vulnerable at times, but the Bulldogs always seem to lock-in defensively when it matters most. Playing against an offense that struggles to convert third downs, throw the ball down the field with efficiency and even protect the ball in general just makes Georgia’s defense that much stronger. Look for the Bulldogs to live in scoring range and come away from the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party with a win and a cover.
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