Sam Avellone
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There are a handful of appealing spots on the Week 11 college football slate, many of which have been highlighted in my colleague Caleb Wilfinger’s best bets article, my Underdog of the Week article and various game previews. However, a few spots stuck out to me in particular this week, so I put them together and tinkered with the lines a bit in hopes of cashing a parlay with an increased payout. Here’s what it looks like:
Kansas Jayhawks alternate spread -6.5 (+130)
UCF Knights ML (+112)
Arizona State Sun Devils alternate spread +10.5 (+162)
NCAAF Mega Parlay Odds: +1177
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Kansas Jayhawks -6.5 over Texas Tech Red Raiders
Kansas’s win over Oklahoma was the only win in Lawrence that was by less than 11 points. The Jayhawks have scored at least 33 points in all of their home games, and I’m not sure that’s going to change against Texas Tech’s defense. The Red Raiders are 84th in PPA allowed in non-garbage time since Week 5, and they yield an average of more than 4 points every time their opponent enters the green zone. Furthermore, Texas Tech’s defense has not been very efficient on early downs since the end of September and is bottom 40 nationally in opposing third down conversion percentage. Kansas should be able to methodically move the ball throughout the game, as they finish their scoring opportunities with touchdowns more often than not. For reference, the Jayhawks are 11th nationally in offensive PPA and 2nd in explosiveness since Week 5. Meanwhile, Texas Tech accumulates 55 less yards and 9 less points on the road than it does at home. Kansas by at least a touchdown.
Be sure to check out our full Texas Tech vs Kansas predictions
UCF Knights ML over Oklahoma State Cowboys
Despite its recent success, Oklahoma State opened as low as a 3.5-point favorite against a UCF team that lost 5 consecutive games before its win over Cincinnati last week. In fact, the spread was bet under the key number of 3 in the middle of the week – which feels like an incredibly strong move and could be a sign UCF is live. Oklahoma State’s defense has not been elite by any means, as the Cowboys are 88th in defensive PPA and 72nd in defensive success rate since Week 5. The Cowboys have also been prone to giving up explosive plays, sitting in the bottom 10 nationally in rush explosiveness allowed since the end of September.
A healthy John Rhys Plumlee under center means the Knights have much more versatility offensively, which should lead to chunk plays at home in the Bounce House. For what it’s worth, UCF is 7th nationally in rush explosiveness since Week 5, so Plumlee and the Knights are equipped to take advantage of a defense that is known to give up big plays and sits outside the top 75 in PFF’s tackling grade. The Cowboys have surrendered 100-yard rushing performances to 2 quarterbacks so far this season. If Plumlee gets to 100 yards in this contest, I think the Knights will be in position to win the game outright.
Be sure to check out all of our NCAAF Week 11 picks for the biggest games on Saturday
Arizona State Sun Devils +10.5 over UCLA Bruins
Both of these offenses have navigated shaky quarterback play this season, and both defenses are top 35 nationally in havoc created since Week 5 – so I expect this to be an incredibly sloppy game. I tend to gravitate towards double-digit underdogs in games with low totals, especially when I do not trust the favorite to win by margin. That is exactly the case in this matchup, as UCLA has not done enough for me to think they are likely to win by more than 10 points in this particular matchup. For what it’s worth, the Bruins have been equally as inefficient and unexplosive as the Sun Devils since Week 5, and they have a cross-city matchup with USC next week. UCLA could be looking past Arizona State here, which does not help the Bruins situationally either.
