We have reached Week 12 of the college football regular season, which means we have just 3 weeks left until conference championships, bowl season, and ultimately the College Football Playoff. We got back into the winners column last week with UConn, as the Huskies not only covered the 8.5 points against Duke but won outright over an ACC opponent for the second time this season. Interestingly enough, the Huskies have the same amount of ACC wins as the Florida State Seminoles.
As we push forward into Week 12, it’s time to take a look at all the early lines and odds as of Monday morning on FanDuel Sportsbook. Like every week, I’ll cap it off with a best bet, in hopes of improving on our 6-4 mark on this early-week column. Make sure you check Pickswise every day this week and for the rest of the season, as we will have NCAAF predictions on CFB best bets on all of the biggest matchups – from midweek MACtion to Saturday’s main slate.
CFB Week 12 Early Lines and Odds
- Ohio -2.5 (-110) @ Western Michigan – Tuesday, November 11
- Toledo -3.5 (-110) @ Miami (OH) – Wednesday, November 12
- Central Michigan -2.5 (-105) vs Buffalo – Wednesday, November 12
- Old Dominion -10.5 (-105) vs Troy – Thursday, November 13
- Louisville -3.5 (-105) vs Clemson – Friday, November 14
- Oregon -23.5 (-115) vs Minnesota – Friday, November 14
- Notre Dame -10.5 (-105) @ Pitt – Saturday, November 15
- Michigan -9.5 (-122) vs Northwestern (Wrigley) – Saturday, November 15
- UConn -7.5 (-105) vs Air Force – Saturday, November 15
- Indiana -30.5 (-110) vs Wisconsin – Saturday, November 15
- Cincinnati -6.5 (-105) vs Arizona – Saturday, November 15
- Texas A&M -18.5 (-110) vs South Carolina – Saturday, November 15
- South Florida -10.5 (-106) @ Navy – Saturday, November 15
- LSU -5.5 (-110) vs Arkansas – Saturday, November 15
- Arizona State -11.5 (-110) vs West Virginia – Saturday, November 15
- North Texas -17.5 (-115) @ UAB – Saturday, November 15
- Marshall -7.5 (-102) @ Georgia State – Saturday, November 15
- USC -6.5 (-105) vs Iowa – Saturday, November 15
- Miami -14.5 (-110) vs NC State – Saturday, November 15
- Alabama -6.5 (-118) vs Oklahoma – Saturday, November 15
- James Madison -19.5 (-115) vs Appalachian State – Saturday, November 15
- Texas Tech -23.5 (-115) vs UCF – Saturday, November 15
- Illinois -14.5 (+100) vs Maryland – Saturday, November 15
- Duke -6.5 (-110) vs Virginia – Saturday, November 15
- Georgia Tech -16.5 (-115) @ Boston College – Saturday, November 15
- Penn State -6.5 (-122) @ Michigan State – Saturday, November 15
- Tulane -16.5 (-115) vs Florida Atlantic – Saturday, November 15
- East Carolina -2.5 (-118) vs Memphis – Saturday, November 15
- Ole Miss -15.5 (-110) vs Florida – Saturday, November 15
- Washington -16.5 (-118) vs Purdue – Saturday, November 15
- Utah -9.5 (-115) @ Baylor – Saturday, November 15
- Ohio State -31.5 (-110) vs UCLA – Saturday, November 15
- Georgia -5.5 (-115) vs Texas – Saturday, November 15
- Missouri -7.5 (-105) vs Mississippi State – Saturday, November 15
- BYU -6.5 (-105) vs TCU – Saturday, November 15
- San Diego State -2.5 (-118) vs Boise State – Saturday, November 15
CFB Week 12 early best bet: East Carolina -2.5 over Memphis (-118)
Memphis’ home setback against Tulane last week was soul-crushing. Because of their random loss at UAB as 24-point favorites earlier this year, the Tigers were effectively removed from not only the College Football Playoff picture but also potentially from AAC Championship contention with the loss to Tulane – as the Tigers now have 2 conference losses and sit behind 5 1-loss teams in the league race.
One of those 5 teams is East Carolina, which has been cruising lately. In fact, the Pirates have thrown up 40+ points in 3 straight games behind an offense that is clicking on all cylinders. For reference, the Pirates are top-10 nationally in PPA per rush and top-50 in PPA per pass outside of garbage time since Week 7 – which includes their loss to Tulane. All in, ECU is 21st in PPA per play and 5th in success rate over the last 5 weeks, and its offense is accompanied by a defense that is nearly just as good. The Pirates sit 27th nationally in PPA per play allowed and 23rd in defensive success rate since the beginning of October, including a top-5 rush defense when it comes to PPA per rush and stuff rate in that span. Not to mention they are sixth nationally in red-zone touchdown rate allowed; opponents have only scored 10 touchdowns in 26 red-zone attempts against this defense.
Stats aside, I’m expecting a textbook hangover spot from the Tigers after their season goals were effectively squashed last week. What makes it more difficult is that the Tigers had a real chance to complete a double-digit comeback and win, but QB Brendon Lewis was knocked out of the game due to a re-aggravated ankle injury – which left their backup quarterback in a very difficult spot. Lewis’ status is up in the air for this game, and knowing how Memphis has handled his injury news previously, we won’t actually know if he is playing until game day or close to it.
Regardless of who takes snaps for Memphis, I like ECU to win the battle of the ground game on both sides of the ball. That should propel the Pirates to a win and cover in their final game at home, where they have beaten everyone soundly except BYU.
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