Sam Avellone
Week 4 of the college football regular season delivered a handful of surprising results and multiple enticing matchups, including TCU’s win and cover over SMU in the final installment of the Battle for the Iron Skillet. The result by the Horned Frogs cashed our second early-week best bet in a row, moving us to 2-1 on the season.
With Week 4 in the rearview mirror, our focus shifts to a monumental Week 5 slate that includes 4 heavyweight, ranked matchups in USC vs Illinois, LSU vs Ole Miss, Oregon vs Penn State, and Alabama vs Georgia, in addition to multiple other headline contests like Notre Dame vs Arkansas, Ohio State vs Washington, Auburn vs Texas A&M, and Arizona vs Iowa State. I highly recommend clearing your Saturday calendar to consume this masterful college football slate. Get yourself to your favorite sports bar or make a reservation with your living room couch and enjoy!
Here are the early-week lines and odds for Week 5’s massive slate, capped off by my weekly best bet. Be sure to check Pickswise throughout the week for our NCAAF predictions for all of the CFB action.
Week 5 opening lines and odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing on Monday, September 22nd.
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- East Carolina -3.5 (-102) vs Army – Thursday, September 25
- Florida State -6.5 (-122) @ Virginia – Friday, September 26
- Arizona State -2.5 (-110) vs TCU – Friday, September 26
- Louisville -3.5 (-110) @ Pitt – Saturday, September 27
- Georgia Tech -15.5 (-105) @ Wake Forest – Saturday, September 27
- Notre Dame -5.5 (-112) @ Arkansas – Saturday, September 27
- Minnesota -5.5 (-110) vs Rutgers – Saturday, September 27
- Kansas -6.5 (-102) vs Cincinnati – Saturday, September 27
- Duke -5.5 (-115) @ Syracuse – Saturday, September 27
- USC -6.5 (-106) @ Illinois – Saturday, September 27
- Vanderbilt -22.5 (-110) vs Utah State – Saturday, September 27
- UConn -2.5 (-120) @ Buffalo – Saturday, September 27
- Utah -11.5 (-104) @ West Virginia – Saturday, September 27
- Northwestern -6.5 (-115) vs UCLA – Saturday, September 27
- Texas A&M -6.5 (-114) vs Auburn – Saturday, September 27
- Ole Miss -1.5 (-120) vs LSU – Saturday, September 27
- UL Monroe -3.5 (-105) vs Arkansas State – Saturday, September 27
- Air Force -4.5 (-110) vs Hawaii – Saturday, September 27
- Tennessee -8.5 (-110) @ Mississippi State – Saturday, September 27
- Iowa State -6.5 (-114) vs Arizona – Saturday, September 27
- Indiana -7.5 (-102) @ Iowa – Saturday, September 27
- NC State -10.5 (-110) vs Virginia Tech – Saturday, September 27
- Ohio State -8.5 (-108) @ Washington – Saturday, September 27
- Boise State -17.5 (-115) vs Appalachian State – Saturday, September 27
- Georgia -3.5 (-102) vs Alabama – Saturday, September 27
- Penn State -3.5 (-106) vs Oregon – Saturday, September 27
- Stanford -1.5 (-118) vs San Jose State – Saturday, September 27
- South Carolina -6.5 (-110) vs Kentucky – Saturday, September 27
- Louisiana -1.5 (-110) vs Marshall – Saturday, September 27
- Louisiana Tech -3.5 (-115) @ UTEP – Saturday, September 27
- BYU -6.5 (-110) @ Colorado – Saturday, September 27
CFB Week 5 early best bet: Rice Owls vs Navy Midshipmen Under 46.5 (-110)
This isn’t exactly one of the headline matchups of the week, but investing in the under between Rice and Navy is extremely appealing. If you look at Navy’s games this season, you will notice the over is 3-0 despite all three of those contests closing with a total north of 50 points. Meanwhile, Rice is on an over run itself, cashing in three of its four contests. However, at the time of writing this article, the total for this AAC clash sits at just 46.5 points on FanDuel, which I believe is a sign from the oddsmakers.
Many would view this as a smash spot on the over, but I am hesitant when it feels “too good to be true.” When you dig deeper into this matchup, the number makes a lot of sense. With head coach Scot Abell leading the way, Rice has become an option-based offense that emphasizes the run. In fact, Rice is 3rd nationally in non-garbage time rush rate, which sits just behind Army and Navy and just ahead of Air Force. Not only that, but Rice operates at an even slower pace than Navy on a seconds-per-play basis. So, the Owls are essentially a service academy football team this season.
If you follow college football, you know betting unders between service academies has been highly-profitable over the years. That’s the angle I’m taking here, especially considering how low the total feels compared to Navy’s previous games. Look for this to be a slowly-paced, run-heavy game; bet the under.
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