College Football Week 5 parlay at mega +1120 odds for Saturday 9/30: Three offenses poised to overpower their opponents
The highly-anticipated Week 4 slate has come and gone, but Week 5 still offers some great matchups that will play a part in bowl qualification and conference title races. There are a few spots that stuck out to me from a betting perspective this week, so I put them all together on my bet slip and adjusted some of the lines to give us a 3-leg parlay with a mega payout. Let’s take a look at the breakdown of each leg.
Kentucky alternate spread -2 (+112)
Tulane alternate spread -27 (+146)
Ole Miss alternate spread -2 (+134)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Kentucky Wildcats -2 over Florida Gators (+112)
When you compare the resumés of each of these teams, Florida’s stands out as the better one. The Gators beat a ranked conference opponent in Tennessee just 2 weeks ago while also having a matchup at Utah under its belt despite it being a loss. Meanwhile, Kentucky has played just 1 power conference opponent – Vanderbilt – whom the Wildcats beat and also covered against laying double digits on the road. I believe this perceived resumé advantage is overrating Florida slightly in the betting market, creating some value on Kentucky at home.
The Wildcats’ resumé to this point might not be something to write home about, but they have found success offensively with NC State transfer quarterback Devin Leary at the helm. In fact, the Wildcats rank in the top 15 in yards per play through 4 weeks while maintaining a top 10 mark in points per game against FBS opponents. With Leary, the Wildcats pass more than they run the ball, which is a good thing for them against this Florida defense that has yet to face a capable passer of Leary’s pedigree. For what it is worth, the Gators are outside the top 90 in sacks and tackles for loss while Kentucky’s offensive line has allowed just 4 sacks and is top 25 in tackles for loss allowed. Furthermore, Florida is outside the top 40 in PFF’s pass coverage grade despite allowing just 162.8 passing yards per game. In short, I believe Florida’s pass defense box score numbers are a bit inflated due to playing incapable passers through 4 weeks, and that Leary will be able to pick apart what might be a leaky secondary. Defensively, the Wildcats hold opponents to just 2.58 yards per rush, which is a great trait to have against Florida’s dynamic running back duo of Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr – whom have more carries combined than quarterback Graham Mertz does completions. Assuming Kentucky can slow down Florida’s rushing attack, I trust Leary more to lead his offense to a victory than Mertz and think the Wildcats will win by more than a field goal.
Check out our full Florida vs Kentucky predictions
Tulane Green Wave -27 over UAB Blazers (+146)
This feels like a pretty significant mismatch. Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt returned from injury in the Green Wave’s 36-7 win over Nicholls state and accounted for 3 total touchdowns in the victory. His return leads me to believe that Tulane’s offense should be reliable and efficient, especially against UAB’s defense. The Blazers rank 114th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 128th in opposing yards per play while allowing about 4.5 points per opposing trip inside their own 40 yard line – which ranks near the bottom 20 nationally.
Unlike UAB, Tulane’s defense may be better than most perceive it to be. The Green Wave have yielded just 27 combined points in their 3 games outside of the Ole Miss game and currently rank 21st in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Rebels are in the top 25 in some unadjusted defensive metrics like opposing drive efficiency and touchdown rate, and have held opponents to just 4.1 yards per play. Even in their game against Ole Miss, the Green Wave were very good defensively despite the loss. They held the Rebels to 363 total yards and 2.5 yards per rush, and gave up just 1 first down on 13 attempts.
In their conference opener, expect Tulane to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball while limiting UAB’s inefficient offense to a minimal scoring output. On the other side of the ball, I do not expect UAB to be able to stop the Green Wave. This could be a wire-to-wire blowout, so I am going to sell some points here and hope Tulane can win by 4 touchdowns.
Lock in our NCAAF Week 5 best bets — our expert is 7-3 over the past 3 weeks!
Ole Miss Rebels -2 over LSU Tigers (+134)
The second-half performance in Tuscaloosa was ugly, but I still favor Ole Miss in this matchup – who should be playing with its back against the wall this week. LSU’s performance last week was not anything special either, as the Tigers won by just 3 points when laying 17 at home against Arkansas. They seem to have regressed a bit defensively, ranking outside the top 25 in opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency and outside the top 90 in unadjusted metrics such as opposing drive efficiency and opposing touchdown rate. This should give the Ole Miss offense some room to breathe compared to last week, especially in its passing game. Jaxson Dart and his pass catchers should be able to find openings against this leaky secondary that currently ranks 84th in explosive plays allowed, 89th in passing success rate allowed, and 112th in PFF’s coverage grade. For what it is worth, Alabama’s defense ranks 2nd in coverage grade and in the top 25 in both explosiveness and success rate.
The Tigers have also struggled to bring their opposition to the ground, ranking outside the top 100 in PFF’s tackling grade. That is not a good problem to have against Ole Miss, as running backs Quinshon Judkins and Ulysses Bentley have forced 16 combined missed tackles this season on just 72 attempts. Knowing they cannot drop another game if they want to remain firmly in the SEC West race, I expect the Rebels to play with a bit more urgency this week on offense, and for Vaught-Hemingway Stadium to provide a nice home field advantage for Ole Miss similar to the way it did in 2021 when the Rebels beat a ranked Arkansas team following an embarrassing performance at Alabama the week before.
Read our full LSU vs Ole Miss predictions