College Football Week 7 opening lines, odds and best bet: Trojan offense overwhelms Wolverines

Week 6 was a whirlwind of drama across the college football landscape. Texas and Penn State were knocked off by Florida and UCLA, respectively, and subsequently fell out of the AP Top 25. Alabama and Florida State continued to trend in opposite directions following their head-scratching Week 1 matchup in Tallahassee, as the Crimson Tide exacted revenge on Vanderbilt while FSU’s late-game comeback proved to be too little too late. Meanwhile, Iowa State had a similar late-game comeback fizzle out in Cincinnati, Ohio State continues to Ohio State and Baylor nearly lost another home game.

Now into Week 7, we are essentially halfway through the season and we’re starting to get a better feel for these teams. Unfortunately, Louisville was unable to get to the window for us last week despite out-gaining Virginia by almost 150 total yards and 1.3 yards per play due to 2 costly turnovers. We are now 3-2 on these early-week picks as we aim to get back on track this week.

Here are the early-week lines for Week 7’s biggest games as of Monday afternoon, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

College Football Week 7 early lines and odds

• Liberty -1.5 (-115) @ UTEP – Wednesday, October 8
• Tulane -6.5 (-115) vs East Carolina – Thursday, October 9
• South Florida -1.5 (-108) @ North Texas – Friday, October 10
• Washington -10 (-110) vs Rutgers – Friday, October 10
• Alabama -3 (-110) @ Missouri – Saturday, October 11
• Ohio State -15.5 (-110) @ Illinois – Saturday, October 11
• Florida State -10.5 (-110) vs Pitt – Saturday, October 11
• SMU -19.5 (-110) vs Stanford – Saturday, October 11
• Cincinnati -10.5 (-110) vs UCF – Saturday, October 11
• Michigan State -7.5 (-112) vs UCLA – Saturday, October 11
• Toledo -10.5 (-108) @ Bowling Green – Saturday, October 11
• Texas -3 (-105) vs Oklahoma – Saturday, October 11
• Oregon -7.5 (-110) vs Indiana – Saturday, October 11
• Notre Dame -22.5 (-110) vs NC State – Saturday, October 11
• Georgia Tech -14.5 (-110) vs Virginia Tech – Saturday, October 11
• Penn State -21.5 (-105) vs Northwestern – Saturday, October 11
• Iowa State -3.5 (-110) @ Colorado – Saturday, October 11
• Nebraska -6.5 (-108) @ Maryland – Saturday, October 11
• Wake Forest -3 (-105) @ Oregon State – Saturday, October 11
• UNLV -6 (-108) vs Air Force – Saturday, October 11
• TCU -1.5 (-110) @ Kansas State – Saturday, October 11
• App State -3 (-108) @ Georgia State – Saturday, October 11
• Tennessee -13.5 (-105) vs Arkansas – Saturday, October 11
• Texas A&M -7.5 (-108) vs Florida – Saturday, October 11
• Iowa -3.5 (-112) @ Wisconsin – Saturday, October 11
• Georgia -3.5 (-105) @ Auburn – Saturday, October 11
• USC -2.5 (-108) vs Michigan – Saturday, October 11
• Texas Tech -13.5 (-115) vs Kansas – Saturday, October 11
• Clemson -14 (-112) @ Boston College – Saturday, October 11
• LSU -8.5 (-112) vs South Carolina – Saturday, October 11
• BYU -2.5 (-108) @ Arizona – Saturday, October 11
• Utah -5.5 (-110) vs Arizona State – Saturday, October 11

Week 7 CFB early best bet: USC Trojans ML over Michigan Wolverines (-125)

The Trojans have a sizable situational advantage on Saturday night when they welcome the Wolverines to town. Following a disappointing loss at Illinois in Week 5, USC was idle last week, resting and preparing for its primetime matchup with Michigan – who wasn’t very inspiring at home against Wisconsin despite out-gaining the Badgers by nearly 200 yards. This will be the first time Michigan has to fly out to the west coast this season, and if it’s anything last year’s trip out west to Washington, the Wolverines are in for a long day against the Trojans. For reference, Michigan was held to 287 total yards and 17 points in Seattle last season against a Washington team that finished the year 6-7.

While Michigan absolutely upgraded at quarterback in the offseason, head coach Sherrod Moore and his staff don’t seem to understand how to use Bryce Underwood the right way – as the Wolverines leave a bit to be desired on third downs and passing plays. That’s going to be an issue for them against Lincoln Riley’s bunch, who are rested and ready to bounce back from their first Big Ten loss, especially if Michigan cannot get its ground game going. For what it’s worth, that could be a very real issue given the fact that the Trojans defense is 15th nationally in standard downs PPA and 28th in PPA per rush. 

On the other side of the field, USC is elite offensively, boasting top 10 marks in every advanced metric I evaluate weekly. Led by quarterback Jayden Maiava, the Trojans are second-best nationally in finishing their quality drives with points, averaging north of 5.5 points per trip inside the 40-yard line. Moreover, they have the most efficient passing attack in the country when you consider their top-rated PPA per pass outside of garbage time. Typically, a Michigan defense would match up well against this type of offense, but the Wolverines are 91st in points allowed per opposing quality drive and 107th in passing downs PPA – which includes data from their performances on the road against Oklahoma and Nebraska. In those games, the Wolverines surrendered more than 575 combined passing yards and 51 total points.

Look for USC’s high-octane offense to overpower a Michigan defense that has proven to be vulnerable on the back end. Mixed with the cross-country travel and an inconsistent offense that cannot be trusted, expect USC to come away with a victory over Michigan on Saturday.