Sam Avellone
What a week it was! Week 8 certainly lived up to the hype, as college football delivered once again. As many as 9 ranked teams lost last week, with 4 of them losing to unranked opponents. Among those defeated by unranked opponents were #2 Miami, #7 Texas Tech, #22 Memphis and #25 Nebraska. All of them were favored by at least a touchdown.
As we look forward to Week 9, there aren’t as many heavy-hitting matchups. However, as long as college football is on, we can watch it and bet on it. That said, on the heels of a winner on Mississippi State to improve our early-week best bet record to 5-2, it’s time to take a look at the early-week lines and odds in Week 9 and find a best bet before the lines move. Don’t forget to check Pickswise throughout the week for all of our NCAAF predictions on all of the biggest games from Tuesday night through Saturday.
Week 9 CFB opening lines and odds
Available at bet365 at the time of publishing
- Kennesaw State -2.5 (-115) @ FIU – Tuesday, October 21
- Louisiana Tech -3.5 (-110) vs Western Kentucky – Tuesday, October 21
- Delaware -8 (-110) vs Middle Tennessee – Wednesday, October 22
- South Alabama -6.5 (-110) @ Georgia State – Thursday, October 23
- Virginia Tech -4 (-110) vs California – Friday, October 24
- Kansas -3 (-110) vs Kansas State – Saturday, October 25
- Nebraska -7 (-105) vs Northwestern – Saturday, October 25
- Oklahoma -4.5 (-110) vs Ole Miss – Saturday, October 25
- Rutgers -3 (-110) @ Purdue – Saturday, October 25
- SMU -4 (-110) @ Wake Forest – Saturday, October 25
- South Florida -3.5 @ Memphis – Saturday, October 25
- Georgia Tech -17.5 vs Syracuse – Saturday, October 25
- Indiana -24.5 (-110) vs UCLA – Saturday, October 25
- Virginia -9.5 (-110 @ North Carolina – Saturday, October 25
- Auburn -1.5 (-110) @ Arkansas – Saturday, October 25
- UConn -10.5 (-105) @ Rice – Saturday, October 25
- Alabama -13.5 (-110) @ South Carolina – Saturday, October 25
- Iowa State -3 (-110) vs BYU – Saturday, October 25
- Navy -14.5 (-115) vs Florida Atlantic – Saturday, October 25
- Washington -4.5 (-110) vs Illinois – Saturday, October 25
- Iowa -8.5 (-110) vs Minnesota – Saturday, October 25
- Vanderbilt -3 (-105) vs Missouri – Saturday, October 25
- Pitt -7 (-110) vs NC State – Saturday, October 25
- San Diego State -3.5 (-110) @ Fresno State – Saturday, October 25
- Cincinnati -5.5 (-110) vs Baylor – Saturday, October 25
- Texas -6.5 (-110) @ Mississippi State – Saturday, October 25
- Miami -30 (-110) vs Stanford – Saturday, October 25
- Troy -9.5 (-110) vs Louisiana – Saturday, October 25
- Oregon -34 (-110) vs Wisconsin – Saturday, October 25
- Louisville -24 (-110) vs Boston College – Saturday, October 25
- Michigan -14 (-110) @ Michigan State – Saturday, October 25
- Texas A&M -2.5 (-115) @ LSU – Saturday, October 25
- Tennessee -9.5 (-110) @ Kentucky – Saturday, October 25
- Arizona State -8.5 (-110) vs Houston – Saturday, October 25
- Utah -14.5 (-110) vs Colorado – Saturday, October 25
Week 9 CFB early best bet: Arkansas Razorbacks +1.5 over Auburn Tigers (-110)
Bobby Petrino’s Razorbacks don’t seem to have quit on the season despite their 2-5 record and firing of head coach Sam Pittman. While they lost both games, the Hogs were extremely respectable in back-to-back weeks against Tennessee and Texas A&M – a pair of top-15 teams. In fact, Arkansas was very much live to win both of those games if it weren’t for stalled drives and turnovers late in the second halves.
The silver lining here is that Tennessee and Texas A&M are a couple of the best offenses in the country. The Vols and the Aggies are top-15 in yards per play against FBS opponents this season, and they mutually rank in the top 25 in PPA per play and success rate outside of garbage time since Week 4. Fortunately for the Hogs, the Auburn Tigers are nowhere near the Vols or the Aggies offensively. Rather, the Tigers are pretty awful when they have the ball. Coming into this week, they are 90th in third-down conversion rate and 113th in yards per play against FBS opponents, along with 126th in penalties per game. More recently, the Tigers are 111th in points per quality drive and 121st in PPA per play since Week 4. It’s going to be difficult for them to keep up with an Arkansas offense that is just as electric as Tennessee and Texas A&M on paper, even if the Hogs have one of the worst defenses in the country.
The Razorbacks are 4th nationally in both yards per play and third-down conversion rate this season. Moreover, they have been extremely efficient on a play-to-play basis, whether it be on the ground or through the air. Turnovers are absolutely a problem, and Arkansas struggles to consistently find the end zone on its quality drives, but I still like the Hogs to score points at home against a floundering Auburn team.
The Tigers have lost 4 games in a row in which they had a chance to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter. Eventually, that mental fatigue will wear on a team, especially if the team seemingly has a lame-duck coach like Auburn does with Hugh Freeze. Give me Arkansas at home in what may be a sleepy, sloppy spot for Auburn.
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