Week 11 of the 2025 NFL campaign wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Las Vegas Raiders. The season has been a massive disappointment for both teams. Dallas comes in with a 3-5-1 record; Las Vegas is 2-7. You can already stick a fork in the Raiders, while the Cowboys already find themselves in a must-win situation for their faint playoff hopes. Let’s break down my Cowboys vs Raiders Same Game Parlay picks at +750 odds, which gets underway at 8:15 pm ET on ABC and ESPN. We cashed our Lions vs Eagles SNF SGP last night so now we’re looking to make it 2 in a row! Also, be sure to check out our NFL picks for this matchup and EVERY GAME throughout the season, with our experts up +25.1 units.
Cowboys -5.5 alternate spread (+114)
George Pickens to score a touchdown (+150)
Geno Smith Over 231.5 passing yards (-111)
Cowboys vs Raiders Parlay odds: +750
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Dallas wide receiver scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a big win for the Cowboys. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Las Vegas quarterback Geno Smith to throw for his fair share of yards in this matchup, where a positive game script for the Cowboys should result in Geno having to air it out more. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Dallas Cowboys -5.5 alternate spread over Las Vegas Raiders (+114)
This is a fantastic value spot for the Cowboys. They are coming off a bye week and are being mispriced on the road in a venue that is not difficult to play in – especially not when the Raiders have long since been eliminated (albeit not mathematically) from playoff contention. Moreover, Las Vegas is in the midst of a 3-game losing streak – during which it is averaging 12.0 points per contest. The Raiders’ most recent outing against the Broncos set offensive football back several decades – if not more. They combined for a mere 10 first downs in Denver’s 10-7 victory, and Las Vegas averaged a mere 3.2 yards per play.
I don’t care how bad the Cowboys’ defense is; it’s hard to see the Raiders’ offense being able to keep up in this contest. Moreover, Dallas’ defense should be improved to at least some extent from what it was prior to the trade deadline. New acquisitions Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams will make their Cowboy debuts on Monday Night Football.
Find out pro NFL bettor Chris Farley’s 5-star Cowboys vs Raiders best bet for MNF
George Pickens to score a touchdown (+150)
Pickens has gone 3 straight contests without scoring a touchdown. It’s time for him to get back on the horse. I’m not a big fan of the “he’s due” argument, but it is fair to say that a 3-game stretch without a TD is certainly an aberration as opposed to the rule for Pickens. After all, the Georgia product had previously found the end zone in 5 consecutive outings – scoring a total of 6 touchdowns in those 5. He should be able to resume his scoring ways at the expense of a mediocre Las Vegas defense that is 21st league-wide in scoring at 24.4 points per game allowed.
Get JutPicks’ Cowboys vs Raiders TD scorer best bets, including a longshot pick at +1100 odds!
Geno Smith Over 231.5 passing yards (-111)
The likely game script – especially the one in this SGP that calls for Dallas to win by at least a touchdown – has Las Vegas playing from behind most of if not all the way and therefore being forced to air it out. On sheer volume alone, Smith should be able to exceed this 231.5 number. The former West Virginia standout has attempted at least 34 passes 4 times this season, including 39 in Week 9 against Jacksonville (which he parlayed into 284 yards and 4 touchdowns). Smith now faces a Cowboys defense that is horrendous against the pass. It is 29th in passing defense (254.4 yards per game allowed) and 2nd-to-last in yards per attempt allowed (8.2).
Check out Prop Holliday’s best Cowboys vs Raiders player prop bets for MNF, targeting Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb
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